OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.03.09

1. After rebounding last week, overnight Bitcoin fell again over the past 3 days, breaking below the $70,000 mark and temporarily dipping to $65,500. If oil prices remain high, it will limit further rebounds in risk assets. Japan's Nikkei index dropped 5.4% after opening, marking the largest decline since the tariff sell-off in April. Spot market buying has significantly strengthened since the escalation of the Iran conflict, but ETF fund flows reversed on Friday after three consecutive days of net inflows.

2. Rising oil prices have exacerbated inflation concerns, with WTI crude oil surpassing $110 per barrel. The Federal Reserve faces complex policy challenges as stagflation risks rapidly materialize. Traders are pricing in a nearly 50% probability of a rate cut in June, but the actual pace of implementation will still be constrained by inflation rebounds, and asset volatility will significantly increase.

3. Traders have scaled back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has climbed for the fifth consecutive day. This indicates that capital outflow pressure in the crypto market will intensify, requiring a review of the correlation model between the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin to capture potential hedging opportunities.

4. The X Money physical debit card "X Card" is issued by Visa. US beta users can now apply for it. It supports multiple cover designs and offers 3% cash back on all card purchases.

5. The Bitcoin market is showing significant divergence: institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin through spot buying, while derivatives traders are constantly increasing their short positions. Historically, when spot accumulation and negative funding rates occur simultaneously, it often triggers a "short squeeze," though this outcome is not inevitable. The recent volume of stablecoins flowing into exchanges has hit a new high since 2026.

6. US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $568.5 million last week, continuing the trend of about $787.3 million in net inflows from the previous week. This marks two consecutive weeks of positive inflows, the first time in nearly five months. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, with about $23.56 million last week and $80.46 million the week before, achieving two consecutive weeks of positive inflows for the first time since early October last year.

7. The Florida Senate passed Senate Bill 314 on Thursday with a 37-0 vote, paving the way for the state to establish a regulatory framework for the issuance of payment stablecoins. The bill prohibits payment stablecoin issuers from paying any form of interest to holders, provided that federal law prohibits such payments. The companion bill CS/CS/SB 1440 was also passed, expanding confidentiality protections for virtual currency business information.

8. US private credit risks are rising, and top institutions like BlackRock are facing redemption pressures. They have triggered or raised redemption limits, sold assets, and used their own funds to maintain stability, highlighting concentrated liquidity pressures. High interest rates and slow rate cuts exacerbate refinancing and default risks while tightening the financing environment for AI infrastructure. If private credit liquidity risks continue to brew, they will further impact credit markets and tech investments.

9. Peter Schroeder, Head of Global Markets at Circle, stated that over the past nine months, AI agents have completed 140 million payments with a cumulative transaction volume of $43 million. Of these, 98.6% were settled in USDC, with an average of $0.31 per transaction. The number of AI agents with purchasing power exceeds 400,000.

10. Strategy founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted Bitcoin Tracker-related information on the X platform, indicating that Strategy will increase its Bitcoin holdings. If the scale of the increase exceeds expectations, it will amplify Bitcoin price volatility.

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