$135 a Share, SpaceX: Inside the Fair-Value Fight Over the Biggest IPO Ever

SpaceX is set to begin trading on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX.

selling about 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 to raise roughly $75 billion — implying a fully diluted valuation near $1.77 trillion, the largest IPO in market history.

By some estimates, the listing could add over $220 billion to Elon Musk's net worth.

The offering is reported to be oversubscribed, with Fortune citing demand around $250 billion — appetite is clearly strong. But the more interesting story isn't the demand; it's that Wall Street can't agree on what the company is worth. The estimates below are model-based forecasts, not facts — we present them as a map of the debate.

The bull case: pricing a "space + AI" platform, not a rocket company

Bulls argue $135 isn't expensive if you're buying the on-ramp to future space infrastructure — Starlink, low-cost launch, and AI.

• Goldman Sachs (lead underwriter): SpaceX shouldn't be valued as a traditional aerospace name. It models ~$160B revenue by 2028 and over $470B by 2030, with the AI-related segment the most aggressive piece — potentially ~$322B by 2030.

• Morgan Stanley (lead underwriter): long-term value comes from compounding "space + AI." Its most aggressive scenario sees revenue reaching trillions by 2040.

• ARK Invest: its open-source model puts SpaceX enterprise value around $2.5T by 2030 (bull ~$3.1T, bear ~$1.7T) — implying $135 still has upside under its assumptions.

• Sacra (independent): long-term bullish, but frames $135 less as "undervalued" and more as buying an option on SpaceX evolving from launch provider into a vertically integrated space-infrastructure platform.

Note that the two most bullish forecasters here are also lead underwriters — a conflict of interest readers should weigh.

The bear case: the price already banks too much future

Bears don't dispute SpaceX's scarcity or Starlink's value. They argue $1.77T prices in too much, too early — especially the uncertain AI piece.

• Morningstar: DCF fair value ~$780B — only about 45% of the IPO target. Flags a clear "Musk premium" and post-lockup selling pressure; sees better entry points after listing.

• PitchBook: sum-of-the-parts fair value ~$1.1T–$1.7T. At $135, you're at or slightly above the top of that range — "not cheap, but not irrational."

• New Constructs: rates it Unattractive; says the valuation demands SpaceX become one of the most profitable companies in the US market, citing weak investor voting rights and related-party risks.

• Trefis: target around $79 — well below the $135 offer; scarcity doesn't mean investors should ignore price.

Opinion: what the gap really tells you

First, the disagreement isn't about the company — it's about the AI line item.

Nearly everyone agrees SpaceX is a uniquely scarce asset and that Starlink is a real profit engine. The trillion-dollar fork in the road is almost entirely how much credit to give an AI business that barely exists yet. Strip out the AI narrative and the bull/bear range narrows dramatically.

Second, "oversubscribed" measures demand, not value.

Strong order books tell you investors want in; they say nothing about whether $135 is the right price. The fixed-price structure (take-it-or-leave-it) and a sizable retail allocation amplify enthusiasm — but enthusiasm and fair value are different variables.

Third, watch the lockup, not the first day.

With a "Musk premium" baked in and early-holder lockups eventually expiring, the more telling price discovery may come after the debut hype fades — a point both Morningstar and the bears converge on.

Takeaway

The bulls are buying a decade-long story; the bears are paying today's price for it. Both can be right on different timelines. For readers, the useful discipline isn't picking a side on Musk — it's separating what's verified (price, raise, valuation) from what's forecast (the trillion-dollar AI assumptions doing most of the work). In any record-breaking listing, knowing which is which is the edge.

This article compiles publicly reported information and third-party model estimates for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. All forward valuations are forecasts, not facts. Markets are volatile; assess your own risk tolerance.

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