Gold Price Projected to Hit $10,000 by 2030: The Third Super-Bull Cycle is Just Beginning

With gold prices experiencing heightened volatility, the debate over profit-taking has intensified. However, Doug Moglia, Macro and Market Strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, suggests in his latest report that gold’s third super-bull cycle remains intact and is still in its early stages.

Key projections from the report include:

• 2027: Gold prices are expected to break through $5,500/oz.

• 2030: A base case target of $8,000, with potential to hit $10,000 in an overshoot scenario.

This is not an isolated view. Renowned Wall Street analyst Ed Dowd and Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, have both shared optimistic forecasts of gold reaching $10,000 by 2029–2030.

Why This Is the "Third Super-Bull Cycle"

Moglia contextualizes the current trend within a 50-year historical framework:

Initiated in 2022, the current bull market has been running for only four years with a cumulative gain of approximately 200%. Historical super-cycles typically last nearly a decade, suggesting significant room for growth.

The Core Catalyst: The freezing of Russian foreign reserves by Western nations in 2022 fundamentally altered the reserve management logic of global central banks. As a global macro asset with no issuer or counterparty risk, gold is the primary beneficiary of this paradigm shift. Moglia emphasizes that there are currently no signs that gold's status as the preferred reserve asset is reversing.

Evolution of Demand: From Central Banks to ETFs

Demand in this cycle has progressed through distinct phases:

Phase 1 (2022-2024): Driven by Central Banks

• Global central banks purchased over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, representing 20%-25% of annual mine production.

• This price-insensitive demand provided a solid floor for gold prices.

Phase 2 (2025-Present): The ETF Handover

• While central bank purchases moderated to 863 tons in 2025, Western financial investors have entered the market in scale via ETFs.

• Global gold ETF holdings have surged by nearly 20%, surpassing a total of 3,000 tons.

Moglia anticipates that central bank gold reserves (currently at 31%) will eventually converge toward the 56% level held in USD reserves, indicating that long-term purchasing demand is far from peaking.

Compounding Macro Risks: Strengthening the Bull Case

Beyond capital flows, several macro factors continue to support gold's upside:

1. Fed Independence Risks: Political interference in monetary policy could further erode confidence in the USD system.

2. Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. debt burden continues to accumulate with no immediate improvement in sight.

3. Geopolitical Shocks: Escalating tensions in the Middle East drive persistent safe-haven demand.

4. Commodity Super-cycle: AI infrastructure, electrification, and manufacturing reshoring are collectively driving a broader commodity upswing.

Risk Advisory: Volatility and Deleveraging

Moglia warns that as pricing power shifts from price-insensitive central banks to momentum-driven financial investors, the probability of sharp corrections increases. The rapid decline in precious metals in early 2026 serves as a case study in the rapid unwinding of speculative leverage. He advises investors to view periodic pullbacks as accumulation opportunities rather than trend reversals.

Differentiated Opportunities: Silver vs. Mining Stocks

• Silver: The gold-to-silver ratio has returned to its long-term mean of 50-60, suggesting limited tactical upside compared to gold.

• Mining Stocks: Operating margins are nearing 40%, the highest since 2011. The top five gold and silver miners are expected to generate approximately $20 billion in free cash flow in 2025, pointing toward significant revaluation potential.

Strategic Positioning: The Rise of Digital Gold

For investors seeking a convenient and transparent way to allocate to gold without holding physical bullion, digital gold is emerging as a preferred vehicle. Notably, OSL Group (863.HK) has been appointed as a major distributor for the ChinaAMC Digital Gold ETF (03418). Launched by China Asset Management (Hong Kong) and listed on the HKEX on May 29, 2026, it is Hong Kong’s first fully tokenized gold fund.

Through the OSL platform, investors can participate in gold investment within a compliant and secure framework, enjoying the value anchoring of physical gold combined with the 24/7 liquidity and transparency of blockchain technology.

👉 Learn More: OSL Group announced as a major distribution partner for the ChinaAMC Digital Gold ETF

As strategists project gold prices to challenge $10,000 by 2030, utilizing OSL—Hong Kong's first SFC-licensed digital asset platform—to allocate to tokenized gold assets represents a sophisticated approach to modern portfolio management.

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