Welcome to Issue 10: Essential Updates in Stablecoin and Payments

1. This Week's Stablecoin Payment Data

• As of March 5, 2026 (7-day rolling basis), the total stablecoin market capitalization and supply stands at approximately $309.2 billion, maintaining its position in the $300 billion range. This steady level reflects ongoing demand stability in a fluctuating market environment.

• Messari data shows continued transfer activity, with cumulative volumes over the past 30 days exceeding $8.81 trillion. Daily averages range from $291 billion to $300 billion; extrapolating, the past 7 days likely saw totals between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. These figures demonstrate stablecoins' enduring role in high-volume on-chain transactions.

• Adjusting for long-term noise, OSL Research estimates the "effective" volume—excluding market-making, wash-trades, and bot transactions—at roughly one-fifth of the total, placing the past 7 days around $360 billion to $400 billion. This adjusted metric highlights genuine economic transfers, offering a clearer picture of real-world utility beyond automated noise.

(Data sources: Messari, Artemis, OSL Research)

("Effective" = adjusted data, excluding non-economic noise.)

What do these steady volumes suggest about market resilience in your view? Share in the comments!

2. OSL Research Growth Observations

This week's top three stablecoin/protocol growth by market capitalization:

1.Global Dollar (+9.84%; weekly transfers $2.02B, +7.67%):

Issued by Paxos Digital Singapore and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) , Global Dollar is backed 1:1 by USD reserves. Users can mint or redeem 24/7 via Paxos dashboards or APIs. The 9.84% growth stems from its revenue-sharing model: Approximately 97% of reserve asset yields are distributed to Global Dollar Network partners like Kraken , Robinhood , and Anchorage Digitalbased on contributions such as app promotion and liquidity provision. This incentivizes institutions to boost minting and liquidity. Funds show high turnover characteristics, circulating rapidly in Global Dollar Network enterprise payments, Solana decentralized exchange liquidity pools, and lending protocols—widely used for cross-border settlements and trading hedges.

2. Tether Gold (+7.40%; weekly transfers $3.99B, +204.60%):

The scale expansion this week is largely driven by geopolitical safe-haven sentiment and gold price rises. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushed gold above $5,400 per ounce, combined with large institutional transfers (for example, Antalpha 's $15.39 million to Bybit Fintech Limited ), leading to a sharp surge in weekly transfers. Funds exhibit safe-haven-driven, fast-turnover patterns, with large deposits reflecting active arbitrage rather than long-term holding. As CME Groupfutures markets close on weekends, tokenized gold becomes the sole public channel for gold price discovery during off-hours. The on-chain market handles nearly 100% of weekend price discovery, and futures reopening often aligns with on-chain trends.

3. MetaMask USD (+4.46%; weekly transfers $60.16M, -85.59%):

Issued by Bridge (under Stripe ) via the M0 protocol, MetaMask USD is backed 1:1 by short-term U.S. Treasuries under regulatory custody, integrated natively into MetaMask wallets on Ethereum and Linea. The 4.46% growth is fueled by wallet-native features and payment incentives. Users mint via in-wallet fiat on-ramps or stablecoin swaps, enjoying up to 3% minting rewards. The ecosystem loop includes seamless swaps, trading, lending, and yield optimization, plus 萬事達卡 -linked MetaMask Card cashback (1% standard, 3% on first $10,000 for premium). Combined with swap rewards and holding incentives, this drives user engagement.

3. This Week's Stablecoin Payments and Infrastructure News

1.OSL StableHub Launches USDGO Limited-Time 100% Annualized Yield Incentive

OSL Group's StableHub introduced a time-limited reward program for USDGO: New users holding USDGO on OSL Global can earn up to 100% annualized rewards (capped at 1,000 USDGO per user, 7-day validity); existing users get 18% on limited amounts plus 3% long-term on excess. Active from March 10 to April 10, 2026.

Insight:

2. Circle Launches Arc Layer 1 Chain Tailored for USDC

Circle unveiled Arc, a Layer 1 blockchain designed for institutional finance and agent economies, with ~700-800ms confirmations and USDC as gas units—aiming for "1 cent, 1 second, 1 click." It also introduced Nanopayments for micro-transfers and x402 protocol to advance artificial intelligence payments.

Insight:

3. Western Union Launches USDPT Stablecoin for Global Transfers

Western Union partnered with Crossmint to launch USDPT on Solana as part of its "digital asset network." Issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, users convert to local currencies at 360,000+ Western Union points worldwide; Solana enables instant payments, digital USD storage, and global cash access.

Insight:

4. World's Largest Stable USDT Dips 0.8% to $183.61B This Month

USDT market cap fell 0.8% to $183.61 billion this month, continuing January's drop from $186.84 billion peak—first consecutive monthly contraction since 2022 Terra collapse. USDC held steady at ~$75 billion, with minimal yearly growth.

Insight:

5. Crypto Now Has Over 200 Trackable On-Chain Stables

Dune data: Crypto boasts more than 200 traceable stables across 37 chains (35 EVM + Solana/Tron); cap >$320B, non-USD $2.4B. Centralized exchanges hold $80B; January transfers >$10T (56% decentralized exchange)—highest since April 2022.

Insight:

6. Standard Chartered Hires Ex-JPM Blockchain Head for Payments

渣打银行 appointed ex- J.P. 摩根 Kinexys co-head Naveen Mallela as global payments lead, starting May 4—to modernize cash management.

7. In Economic Decision Scenarios, 22 of 36 AI Models Pick Bitcoin as Top Money Tool

Bitcoin Policy Institute study: In simulated decisions, 22 of 36 artificial intelligence models ( OpenAI / Anthropic / 谷歌 / DeepSeek AI / xAI / MiniMax , etc.) chose Bitcoin as preferred money; none picked fiat first. Bitcoin for long-term storage; stables for payments/settles in 28 scenarios.

Insight:

8. Tether + Lugano Invest CHF 5M in Plan B Phase 2

Tether.io and Città di Lugano launch Plan ₿ Phase 2 (2026-2030), investing up to CHF 5 million in digital infra for sovereignty/tech autonomy. Focus: Digital asset/automation management, trade/commodity hubs, privacy IDs, local artificial intelligence/agents, distributed urban infra. Since 2022, >400 merchants accept BTC/USD₮/LVGA; digital bonds/municipal crypto payments piloted.

Insight:

9. Latam Stable App ARQ Raises $70M, Expands from Remits to Wealth Management

ARQ secured $70 million from Sequoia Capital / Founders Fund ; funds for rebranding, hiring, expanding from USD transfers to wealth management, local high-yield accounts, credit. Formerly DolarApp, offers multi-currency accounts/wallets/FX/debit cards for cross-border storage/transfers. >2M users, $10B+ annual volume.

Insight:

4. Analyst Observation: Rate Cut Cycle—What Drives Circle's Continued Growth?

Analyst: Eddie Xin, Chief Analyst, OSL Research

Circle (NYSE: CRCL) released its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings.

Q4 revenue was approximately $770 million, surpassing the consensus expectation of $740 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization surged year-over-year. The stock price rose nearly 20% following the report, based on market close. When breaking down the numbers, Circle's revenue remains heavily reliant on interest income from client funds invested in high-liquidity assets like Treasuries. In Q4, total revenue of $770 million included about $733 million from interest, accounting for over 95%. This model is clear and replicable, but it is also weighty and highly sensitive to interest rate cycles.

The current macroeconomic environment is entering a rate cut phase. As interest rate hubs decline, the "spread eating" business naturally thins out. If Circle were merely a proxy for Treasury yields, its valuation could not sustain expansion on shrinking margins. The elasticity in the stock price suggests the market is repricing a different narrative: a shift from an interest-based operation to a payments infrastructure provider.

The conference call's Q&A session reflected this pivot. Analysts did not dwell long on interest income details. Instead, they focused on stablecoins' potential in artificial intelligence scenarios: Could they be embedded in artificial intelligence workflows? Could they serve as a medium for agent-to-agent value transfers? Could they evolve from "cryptocurrency settlement tools" to "native money for machine economies"? These questions reveal the market's effort to confirm sources of "growth revenue."

The elements that ignited institutional enthusiasm in the report were Circle's updates on the Arc network and the Circle Payments Network. Arc functions like a self-built "clearing highway," designed to extract stablecoin settlements from the congestion and uncertainties of public chains. The company disclosed that since the testnet opened on October 28, 2025, more than 100 banks and payment institutions have joined. It handles 230,000 daily transactions with 0.5-second settlements and near-24/7 availability. The mainnet is planned for launch in 2026.

The Circle Payments Network acts more like the "on-ramps, tolls, and logistics centers" along this highway. It is not a blockchain but an API-driven payment orchestration system. It connects bank account systems with on-chain assets, covering on-ramps, off-ramps, routing, compliance verification, and reconciliation clearing. It aims to solve a long-standing pain point—fiat held in banks and value on the chain—by enabling seamless conversion, transmission, and delivery within the same process.

From the market's perspective, interest income is "given by macro conditions." Network fees and payment service fees are "generated internally." The former is squeezed by rate cuts; the latter depends on network effects and scaled settlement scenarios. Institutions are more willing to assign premium valuations to the latter.

A consensus is forming among leading stablecoin issuers to build their own Layer 1 networks—Circle with Arc, Tether with Stable and Plasma, and Stripe with systems like Tempo. The paths differ, but the goal is the same: to control settlements. Fees and settlement costs can be designed as part of the business model, even payable directly with their own stablecoin. Compliance elements like rules, blacklists and whitelists, risk strategies, and audit interfaces can be engineered in. Settlements from issuance to circulation and redemption form a closed loop, reducing dependence on external chains' congestion and governance issues.

For Ethereum, the implications are significant: Assets and scenarios will migrate toward efficiency and compliance. In the past, chain value was anchored in asset scale and settlement activity, with stablecoins serving as a cornerstone and the most stable source of demand. As large-scale transfers and commercial settlements shift to issuer-built networks, public chains face not just a narrative challenge but a loss of cash-flow-type demand. Gas revenues will thin out, and the focus of on-chain capital markets will rebalance. Artificial intelligence agent payments and reconciliations, if scaled under compliance, are more likely to prefer controllable, auditable, and editable dedicated networks over universal ones.

Circle's stock rise is not simply a response to "higher interest earnings." The market is betting on its transition from "stablecoin issuer" to "settlement network operator": Connecting banking systems on one end with on-chain assets on the other. The "1 cent, 1 second, 1 click" vision is building momentum. In financial history, those who own the rails often hold more pricing power than those who merely ride them.

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