SpaceX Set for Potentially the Largest IPO in History

Elon Musk has never concealed his grand narrative of "Mars colonization," but in the eyes of capital markets, sentiment must be quantified.

According to the latest leaked confidential filing (S-1 draft) information, SpaceX is highly likely to launch the most ambitious capital feast in human history this June. A potential valuation of $1.75 trillion would not only instantly surpass the annual GDP of most sovereign nations but also signal a significant turning point for the global IPO market, driven by "Hard Tech + AI" after a three-year winter.

From "Launcher" to "Fusion of Super Entities"

To view SpaceX merely as a rocket launch company is to clearly underestimate Musk's strategic ambition. The most penetrating detail of this IPO is that it is not a standalone asset securitization of SpaceX, but rather a product deeply integrated with the AI startup xAI.

The merged entity's valuation is anchored at a starting point of $1.25 trillion, sending a clear signal: future low Earth orbit is no longer just metal pipelines for signal transmission, but a new physical layer for running large-scale computational models.

While the revenue projection for Starlink and the rocket launch business is nearing $20 billion for 2026, and xAI's contribution is less than $1 billion, the capital market is willing to pay a high premium for this closed loop of "Computing + Communication + Transport." This explains why Musk insists on a dual-class share structure—he requires absolute control to ensure this behemoth, on its path to Mars, is not swayed by the short-sighted quarterly earnings reports of Wall Street.

The Investment Banking "Arms Race"

This is more than just SpaceX going public; it is a redistribution of interests among the world's top financial institutions.

• Wall Street Giants Fully Engaged: Led by the "Big Five," including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, this is the standard configuration for a top-tier IPO.

• Cross-regional Distribution: Notably, with Citigroup coordinating global subscriptions and Mizuho, Macquarie, and Barclays covering Asian, Australian, and UK markets respectively. This rare global distribution network suggests the massive scale of SpaceX's fundraising—expected to reach $75 billion, nearly triple the record set by Saudi Aramco.

This distribution also reflects Musk's heavy reliance on "retail power." The plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to small investors is not just for brand loyalty, but a shrewd funding strategy: at a time when institutional investors might feel vertigo at a $1.75 trillion valuation, the liquidity provided by millions of "Musk believers" worldwide will be the crucial floor supporting this record-breaking valuation.

The Valuation Game: Bubble or Ticket to a New Era?

For investors, the SpaceX IPO poses a sharp question: are we paying for an existing business model, or investing in an unachieved multi-planetary civilization?

Data shows SpaceX has already monopolized the Low Earth Orbit internet (Starlink) and the low-cost launch market. Its Falcon 9 launch frequency and recovery technology face no threatening competitors in the near term. However, the $1.75 trillion valuation logic effectively prices in the growth of interstellar transport over the next decade, along with all the potential of deep AI integration with satellite networks.

This is not only a "coming-of-age ceremony" for SpaceX but a limit test for the secondary market's tolerance. If this "Super IPO" arrives in June as scheduled, it will become a watershed: on one side, the collapse of traditional valuation systems; on the other, a new power center for private aerospace giants.

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