Market Overview and Macro News Update

• BTC is currently trading at approximately $66,940, down 1.01% over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, it surged to near $69,230 during intraday trading before rapidly retracing to a low of $66,784, and is now consolidating around the $67,000 level. ETH has edged down 0.20% over the past 24 hours, hitting an intraday high of $2,165 before falling back to near $2,070, currently hovering around the $2,080 mark. In precious metals, spot gold is at approximately $4,677/oz, down 1.69% overnight; spot silver is at approximately $73.45/oz, down 3.04% overnight. On the macro front, tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, intensifying market concerns over recurring geopolitical risks. A short-term pullback in oil prices coupled with a dollar rebound has given risk assets some breathing room, but safe-haven premiums have significantly receded, and the crypto market's rebound momentum remains weak.

• According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin demand remains under pressure despite an increase in institutional buying. As of the end of last month, apparent demand (a measure of demand exceeding or falling below newly mined Bitcoin) was approximately negative 63,000 BTC, even as ETF buying intensified over the same period and Strategy Inc. continued its accumulation. The report noted that selling by retail and other market participants has outpaced institutional incremental buying, with demand continuously contracting since late November 2025, indicating the overall market remains in a distribution phase. The whale group that accumulated approximately 200,000 BTC during the 2024 bull market began large-scale distribution in mid-2025, with the pace of selling accelerating in Q4 2025. Buying speed among medium-sized investors is also slowing down.

• Bitfinex released a report stating that BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of $69.4 million and $114 million on March 30 and 31, respectively, ending a two-week outflow trend. However, the structure remains dominated by ARK Invest (ARKB) and Fidelity (FBTC), with limited capital return to BlackRock's IBIT, reflecting continued institutional caution. Meanwhile, funding rates in the derivatives market remained negative for most of Q1, indicating a sustained dominant short position as traders continue to pay for downside risk. There is a dense liquidation zone below approximately $66,500; while an upward price move could trigger a short squeeze, overall market confidence in the current rebound remains insufficient.

• As policy disagreements over stablecoins intensify in the U.S., the crypto super PAC Fellowship PAC announced the appointment of Jesse Spiro, a Tether executive in the U.S., as Chairman to lead political actions supporting pro-crypto candidates. This appointment comes as the "Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act" faces hurdles in the Senate. The current point of contention is whether platforms should be allowed to offer yields or incentives for holding stablecoins, an issue that has become a key obstacle to reaching consensus on the bill. Recently, several crypto companies, including Coinbase, expressed reservations about the latest version of the bill, while stablecoin issuer Circle is facing market pressure due to policy uncertainty. Analysts noted that with mid-term elections approaching, the crypto industry is increasing political lobbying efforts to secure a more favorable regulatory environment.

• Although Bitcoin's current price is gradually approaching historical "buy zones," on-chain data suggests that typical bottoming signals have not yet appeared. Data shows Bitcoin's spot price is around $68,000, while the network-wide average holding cost is approximately $54,000, maintaining a premium of about 21%, which means most holders remain in profit. Historically, during both the 2020 pandemic crash and the 2022 bear market bottom, Bitcoin fell below its realized price, resulting in network-wide unrealized losses and forming a strong buy zone. The market has not yet reached this "total loss" phase. To return to the realized price, Bitcoin would need to drop further to around $54,000, implying approximately 20% further downside. However, it is worth noting that this premium has narrowed rapidly. Additionally, on-chain indicators show the market has not yet completed a full adjustment. For instance, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative, reflecting weakening U.S. institutional demand. Nonetheless, the $65,000 to $70,000 range remains stable under multiple macro shocks, and combined with over $1 billion in ETF inflows in March, shows there is still buy-side support. Overall, Bitcoin is approaching a potential bottom range but has not yet undergone the typical historical "market capitulation" process, leaving short-term uncertainty.

• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a rule change application by NYSE American to list options on multi-cryptocurrency commodity trusts. Previously, only options on single-crypto asset commodity trusts were allowed; the expansion now supports trusts holding multiple crypto assets. Listing requirements include: each crypto asset held by the trust must individually meet high liquidity standards, with an average daily market value of at least $700 million over the past 12 months, and derivative contracts for the crypto asset must be subject to a comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with the exchange. Additionally, trust shares must meet the exchange's initial and continued listing standards for ETF options and qualify as NMS stocks.

• Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that since the outbreak of the war against Iran, market pricing for the U.S. federal funds rate has fluctuated wildly, but the likelihood of a rate hike this year remains low. Analysts stated that the current supply shock is small and more localized than previous shocks that triggered inflation, and the rise in oil prices is smaller than in the 1970s. Furthermore, they believe that "the economic starting point makes widespread inflation spillover unlikely," and the current starting point of monetary policy also reduces the probability of a hike. Analysts emphasized: "The Fed typically does not adopt tightening policies solely in response to oil shocks."

• Ripple announced new Digital Asset Accounts and Unified Treasury features for its enterprise-grade crypto treasury management system, Ripple Treasury, allowing corporate finance teams to manage fiat and digital assets on a single platform. The system enables direct management of assets such as RLUSD and XRP and seamlessly integrates into existing treasury workflows without relying on independent wallets, exchanges, or custodial platforms, thereby lowering the barrier to corporate adoption. This release is based on Ripple's previous acquisition of the enterprise treasury management platform GTreasury, aimed at embedding crypto capabilities into mature corporate financial infrastructure. As the use of stablecoins and digital assets grows, the demand for enterprise-level on-chain treasury management continues to rise.

• An executive at Bithumb stated the company will "focus on preparing for a listing by 2027." CFO Jeong Sang-gyun noted at the company’s annual general meeting that following an IPO consulting contract with Samjong KPMG, Bithumb is "strengthening accounting policies and internal controls." Bithumb had previously planned to go public in 2025. At the meeting, CEO Lee Jae-won was re-elected for a two-year term. During his tenure, Bithumb was fined $24 million and faced a six-month suspension of operations by South Korean regulators for alleged anti-money laundering violations.

• European crypto asset manager CoinShares announced it will begin trading on Nasdaq this Wednesday under the ticker CSHR, following a merger with Vine Hill Capital, a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). The transaction closed Tuesday night with a total valuation of approximately $1.2 billion, including a $50 million investment from institutional investors. Established 12 years ago, CoinShares manages approximately $6 billion in assets, primarily serving institutional and retail investors with structured investment products and funds, including its U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETF. CEO and co-founder Jean-Marie Mognetti stated that since AUM in the U.S. market is limited, this listing helps accelerate expansion in the U.S. market through equity financing.

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