Crypto Market Performance

BTC: 24H gain of approx. 0.31% to $66,593. Fluctuating near key support levels in the short term; safe-haven attributes have emerged amid geopolitical risks but remain weighed down by macro factors.

ETH: 24H change of approx. -0.7% to $2,007. Moving in line with the broader market; intensified ETF outflows are adding to the pressure.

Total Crypto Market Cap: 24H change of approx. 0.8%, with total market cap at approx. $2.35 trillion. Overall risk appetite remains cautious due to geopolitical events.

Market Liquidations: Total 24H liquidations at approx. $307 million; long liquidations at approx. $235 million, short liquidations at approx. $72 million. Liquidations are predominantly driven by long positions.

Weekly Outlook (March 30 - April 3)

Mon: 🇯🇵 BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March Monetary Policy Meeting (A bellwether for JPY policy shifts)

Tue: 🇺🇸 NY Fed President Williams speaks (Core FOMC voter setting the macro tone)

Wed: 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers remarks | 🎙️ Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 FOMC voter) speaks (Focus on the latest stance on inflation and rate-cut trajectories)

Thu: 🇺🇸 US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims | 📉 US February Trade Balance (Insights into labor market resilience and trade equilibrium)

Fri: 🏛️ US March Non-Farm Payrolls (Jobs added / Unemployment rate / Average hourly earnings) | 📊 US March S&P Global Services PMI Final (A major test for labor market and service sector activity)

Market Dynamics

1. BTC stabilized after a volatile downward trend over the weekend, retreating approximately 3% over the past three days while holding key support at $65,000-$66,000. ETH experienced narrow-range consolidation over the weekend, fluctuating around $2,000 and facing psychological resistance at that level. Following the unexpected drop in the Consumer Confidence Index to 53.3 and a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 3.8%, market concerns over stagflation have intensified. Policy expectations remains cautious following the March FOMC meeting. Massive BTC option expirations and continuous outflows from ETH spot ETFs (nearly $400 million in a single week) have heightened short-term volatility. However, BTC remains relatively stronger than the broader market. Overall risk asset sentiment continues to be constrained by US Treasury yields and the USD trajectory; focus this week remains on the impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic data on capital rotation.

2. According to data disclosed by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart on X, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive outflow of approximately $9 billion from October 2025 to the end of February this year, though roughly $30 billion [Correction: $3 billion as per original text] has since been recovered. Although net outflows since the "1011 Crash" still exceed $6 billion, year-to-date performance shows that inflows and outflows are nearing a break-even point, indicating a recovery in capital sentiment.

3. On-chain data platform Glassnode stated that the current BTC price is situated at the lower bound of the cost basis for new investors ($60k–$70k). Data shows a degree of chip accumulation within this range, but the overall scale remains below typical levels that historically drive strong rebounds. Glassnode noted that while the current accumulation structure is constructive in form, it lacks sufficient intensity and has yet to form a clear upward momentum signal.

4. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has nominated Shin Hyun Song, head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and a "pragmatic hawk," as the new Governor of the Bank of Korea. Reportedly, Shin holds a negative view on the government's push for a KRW-pegged stablecoin, arguing that in countries prone to exchange rate volatility and capital flight, stablecoins can easily become tools for capital evasion, and domestic currency-pegged stablecoins may accelerate this trend.

5. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest sold approximately $41 million worth of Meta shares and over $26 million in Nvidia shares on Thursday. Additionally, the firm sold about $11 million of its own Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) shares, $6.5 million in Bullish exchange shares, and nearly $5 million in Jack Dorsey’s Block shares. Ark Invest also reduced its holdings in Alphabet (approx. $2.5 million) and AMD (approx. $7.5 million).

6. "Big Four" accounting firm EY announced the launch of the EY Blockchain Privacy Sandbox. This web-based development environment is designed to help enterprises and developers experiment with privacy-preserving smart contracts on EVM-compatible public chains. Based on the open-source technology "Starlight," the sandbox allows developers to convert standard Solidity contracts into privacy-preserving applications while maintaining original logic.

7. Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in a research report that the decline in BTC and the crypto market has roughly reached the historical average peak-to-trough level for this cycle. While performance has stabilized recently, Yaro warned that trading volumes might decline further, making prices susceptible to sharp fluctuations. He noted that volume bottoms typically last about 3 months before a recovery; a further slide in volume could reduce 2026 crypto company revenues by 2% and profits by 4%.

8. Following Bitcoin's all-time high of $127,000 in October 2025, the market retraced to the $60,000 range in Q1 2026. This represents a normal cyclical adjustment of "deleveraging + liquidity contraction." Current pressure stems from global tightening (Fed balance sheet reduction, strong USD). 2026 is expected to be a "multi-stage recovery": bottoming in early year, periodic rebounds in mid-year, and entering a sustainable uptrend after late-stage volatility. Investors should maintain a defensive allocation; 2026 is likely a "transition year" rather than a unilateral bull or bear market.

9. BNP Paribas officially announced the launch of 6 crypto-related ETNs (Exchange Traded Notes), providing investors with indirect exposure to assets like BTC and ETH. These products comply with the MiFID II regulatory framework. Subscription will open on March 30, 2026, to individual, entrepreneurial, and private banking clients in France, with plans to expand to broader wealth management segments.

10. Coin Center Executive Director Peter Van Valkenburgh stated that if the market structure legislation (CLARITY Act) fails to pass, future industry-unfriendly US administrations could intensify regulation. The goal of the CLARITY Act is to bind future governments through law rather than relying on current sentiment. Without such legal protections, the industry remains vulnerable to enforcement discretion, policy shifts, and uncertainty.

OSL Insights

Escalating tensions in the Middle East are driving up energy prices, forcing a shift in global monetary policy. As oil prices approach the $100 mark, Wall Street has pivoted from "soft landing" hopes to "stagflation" fears. This shift is eating away at the value of high-growth stocks and assets.

Amidst this storm, digital assets are showing institutional resilience. Even though market sentiment is cautious, the slowing sell-off in BTC ETFs suggests that long-term institutional holders are staying put. This isn't a market collapse; it’s a flight to quality. Investors are moving capital toward compliant, regulated platforms for better security. Until the geopolitical dust settles, staying with regulated channels and maintaining a defensive strategy will be the key to surviving this cycle.

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