Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H decline of approximately 2.2%, trading at $68,423. The market retraced after a failed attempt to breach the $70,000 mark. Due to macro risk-off sentiment, it is currently seeking support within the $68,000 range.

• ETH: 24H decline of 5.46%, trading at $2,036. Performance was significantly weaker than the broader market, characterized by persistent selling pressure on spot Ethereum ETFs (such as ETHA) and a slowdown in on-chain activity as market sentiment cooled.

• Total Crypto Market Cap: 24H decline of 4.7%, with total market capitalization receding to $2.33 trillion. The driver was a general decline across major coins (excluding TRX and certain hedging tokens), with the market exhibiting risk aversion after the Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5%–3.75%.

• Market Liquidation Status: Total 24H liquidation reached $277 million, with long liquidations at $242 million (approx. 87%) and short liquidations at $35 million. Data indicates a significant wash-out of leveraged long positions over the past 24 hours.

Weekly Outlook (March 23 – March 27)

• Monday: 🇺🇸 US Construction Spending (Jan) | ⚖️ Official release of SEC/CFTC Crypto Regulatory Framework

• Tuesday: 🇯🇵 Japan Core CPI (Feb) (Monitoring the JPY rate hike path)

• Wednesday: 🇦🇺 Australia / 🇬🇧 UK CPI Tests | 🛢️ US EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Energy inflation focus)

• Thursday: 🇺🇸 US Initial Jobless Claims | 🌍 G7 Finance Ministers Meeting begins (until Friday)

• Friday: 🏛️ Speeches by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson & San Francisco Fed President Daly (Setting the tone for rate cut expectations)

Daily Market Dynamics

• BTC retreated rapidly over the weekend, falling below the $68,000 threshold with a 24-hour decline of roughly 2.2%. Dragged down by market sentiment, mainstream crypto assets weakened in tandem. Influenced by Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran and threats against power infrastructure, the market is no longer trading based on expectations of a breakout above $75,000. Faster-reacting traders in the derivatives market have already adjusted positions, as the overall market prepares for uncertainty and potentially greater volatility. On the macro level, the market is starting to price in rate hike expectations while the Fed continues to issue rate cut guidance—a divergence unlikely to persist long-term. If the oil price shock further evolves into a growth shock, risk assets may face significant pressure. Key price ranges have entered a sensitive stage; once breached, the downward trend may accelerate.

• Asia-Pacific and European equity markets tumbled. European index futures saw expanded losses, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% and DAX futures down 1.2%. The Korea Exchange triggered the KOSPI circuit breaker mechanism after KOSPI 200 futures fell 5%, suspending programmed trading for 5 minutes. Nikkei 225 losses widened to 4%.

• The Hong Kong SFC released its Q4 2025 report. Regarding digital assets, the value of SFC-authorized tokenized retail money market funds has grown to HK$8.66 billion since their 2025 launch, a 14% quarterly increase. Since the launch of Asian virtual asset spot ETFs in 2024, 11 such ETFs are now listed in Hong Kong, with total market cap surging 142% to over HK$5.4 billion. As of December, the total market cap of SFC-authorized ETFs, leveraged, and inverse products jumped 33.7% year-on-year to HK$618.7 billion.

• Coinbase announced the launch of US stock perpetual futures, open to eligible users outside the US, supporting 24/7 leveraged trading of US-listed equities. The product offers contract trading for stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, as well as ETFs such as SPY and QQQ. Leverage is supported up to 10x for individual stocks and 20x for ETFs, settled in USDC. Coinbase stated the product aims to meet global demand for round-the-clock US stock trading, with plans to expand to more stocks, indices, and asset classes.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) announced it is recruiting experts to help develop a rulebook for the digital euro in daily payment scenarios, focusing on ATMs and merchant card terminals. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated last December that technical and preparatory work for the digital currency is complete, pending political approval. The project is under review by the European Council and Parliament; if approved, it is expected to launch as early as 2029. Meanwhile, 12 European banks, including BBVA, ING, and BNP Paribas, formed the Qivalis project to launch a Euro-pegged stablecoin in H2 2026, aiming to provide blockchain payment solutions independent of USD-backed tokens.

• Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division, with roughly $8 trillion in AUM, recommends a Bitcoin allocation range of 0–4%. A 2% allocation would imply approximately $160 billion in potential buying pressure for the crypto market, three times the size of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. Phong Le described this potential demand as "Monster Bitcoin," suggesting massive buy-side volume that could significantly impact price and liquidity.

• Rising energy prices coupled with Middle East tensions have further pushed up mining costs. With electricity costs under pressure, miners may be forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, creating additional market overhead. Data shows intensified pressure on Bitcoin mining economics, with the average production cost per coin at approximately $88,000 versus a BTC price of roughly $68,200, implying a loss of nearly $20,000 per BTC (a 21% loss margin). Simultaneously, network difficulty was adjusted downward by 7.8%—the second-largest drop in 2026—reflecting hashrate exit and network pressure, as hashrate fell to ~920 EH/s and average block times extended beyond 12 minutes. If prices remain below costs and difficulty continues to drop, the miner capitulation process may persist, weighing on the spot market structure in the short term.

• The core driver for gold currently lies in the re-constraint of interest rate expectations by rising energy prices. As the Middle East conflict continues, crude oil prices remain elevated, with Brent futures stabilizing above $100, significantly raising concerns over sticky inflation. Against this backdrop, judgment on the inflation cooling path has turned cautious, weakening the pricing of rate cuts and driving a stronger USD, which pressures gold. Despite weak employment data earlier, energy-driven inflation expectations are offsetting this bullish factor, making gold's financial attributes short-term bearish. At the policy level, the market generally expects the Fed to hold rates steady for the second consecutive meeting, but the focus remains on forward guidance regarding the rate path—specifically Powell's assessment of inflation and geopolitical impacts.

• The joint interpretive guidance on crypto assets from the SEC and CFTC was submitted to the Federal Register on March 20 and is expected to take effect immediately upon official release this Monday, March 23. The document holds Commission-level authority and will replace the 2019 "Framework for 'Investment Contract' Analysis of Digital Assets," guiding enforcement and supervision for both agencies. Building on the "Project Crypto" initiated in 2025, it is viewed as a "regulatory bridge" for crypto assets, providing immediate compliance clarity for entrepreneurs and investors before bipartisan market structure legislation advances in Congress.

• Polymarket team member Mustafa posted on X that major news is coming this Monday. As the tweet included a coin emoji, the community speculates it involves financing or a token launch. According to the Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly in talks with potential investors for new funding rounds targeting valuations of around $20 billion. Recently, Kalshi completed a new round of over $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation—double its $11 billion valuation last December. Sources revealed the round was led by Coatue Management, with Kalshi’s annualized revenue currently at $1.5 billion.