2026年5月15日,受全球通脹粘性與地緣政治因素影響,宏觀加息預期捲土重來。全球風險資產普遍承壓,美債收益率全線飆升,加密市場遭遇流動性擠壓,比特幣 (BTC) 短線跌破 80,000 美元關口。
然而,從鏈上數據與歷史週期來看,此次回調更傾向於暴漲後的技術性獲利了結,為長線資金提供了重新入場的窗口。
本周,受原油價格反彈等通脹指標影響,市場對美聯儲的「鷹派」定價迅速升溫。傳統金融市場反應劇烈:美國兩年期國債收益率飆升至 4.065%,十年期國債收益率攀升至 4.530%,創下近期新高。無風險利率的急劇走高,直接導致全球股市下跌(如韓股重挫等),同時也對加密貨幣等高風險資產形成了短期的流動性抽血效應。
在宏觀逆風下,加密市場首當其衝。據 SoSoValue 數據顯示,週三美國比特幣現貨 ETF 錄得高達 6.352 億美元的淨流出,其中貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 領銜了此次贖回潮。
在機構資金撤退與高倍槓桿清算的雙重重擊下,比特幣價格回撤並失守 80,000 美元關鍵支撐位。
儘管短期數據看似慘烈,但回歸市場基本面,此次下跌是健康的風險釋放。在此次回調前,比特幣自 4 月低點已累計錄得超過 37% 的強勁反彈。
在如此巨大的獲利盤面前,配合宏觀利空進行深度洗盤,是牛市中期的典型特徵。高達 6.35 億美元的 ETF 流出,實質上是早期獲利資金的正常交替。當短期的「加息恐慌」被市場充分消化,去槓桿化後的比特幣網絡將展現出更強的價格韌性,8 萬美元下方的核心區間正成為長線佈局的潛在價值窪地。
OSL | 出入金從未如此安心!
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