OSL Research Daily Brief | Jan 13, 2026

• Market Movement: BTC continued to fluctuate overnight with heightened volatility. Spot gold surged past $4,600/oz, and silver approached historic highs, significantly increasing risks associated with high-level price swings.

• Fed Conflict: Tensions between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell escalated. The New York Times reported that federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters, suspecting Powell of providing false statements to Congress. Powell responded that these actions are essentially pressure stems from the Fed's commitment to an independent monetary policy based on economics rather than politics.

• Strategic Partnership: PayPal announced support for Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) and will be integrated as a payment option for Google AI.

• Regulatory Shift: South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) plans to end a 9-year ban on corporate crypto investment. The new policy would allow listed companies and institutional investors to allocate up to 5% of their equity or net assets annually into the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap listed on Korea’s five major exchanges. This is expected to affect 3,500 entities; discussions regarding the inclusion of stablecoins like USDT are ongoing, with final guidelines expected in Jan/Feb.

• Rate Projections: Major investment banks revised their 2026 rate cut forecasts. Citi, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley postponed the expected first rate cut to mid-year. JPMorgan adopted a more hawkish stance, predicting no rate cuts in 2026 and potential hikes in 2027.

• Economic Outlook: NY Fed President John Williams stated that current monetary policy is well-positioned with no immediate reason to cut rates, aiding labor market stability and the return to the 2% inflation target. He also projected a 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 2.5%–2.75%.

• Institutional Service: Standard Chartered plans to establish a crypto asset prime brokerage within its venture arm, SC Ventures, to compete for institutional-grade crypto trading volume.

• IPO Filing: U.S. crypto custody giant BitGo has filed for an IPO in the U.S., aiming to capture the market window for crypto and mid-cap IPOs in early 2026.

• Funding Round: Stablecoin infrastructure firm VelaFi announced a $20 million Series B round led by XVC and Ikuyo, with participation from Alibaba Investment, Planetree, and BAI Capital. The company specializes in enterprise-grade stablecoin payments and treasury management (on/off-ramps, cross-border payments, API).

• Legislative Delay: Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman announced that the markup of the crypto market structure bill, originally set for this Thursday, is postponed to the last week of January to allow more time for bipartisan negotiations.

Compliance and Risk Disclaimer

1. Status This document is authored by OSL and is intended solely for the reference of OSL internal personnel or institutions with a specific collaborative relationship with OSL. No part of this document may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted to any external third party in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of OSL. This document does not constitute product disclosure, an official offer, marketing material, a legal document, or any other form of regulated communication. The contents herein do not form the basis of any binding contract, agreement, or commitment.

2. No Advice All information, opinions, and analyses in this document are based on publicly available data and OSL’s internal judgment, and do not constitute investment advice or an offer. This document does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any recipient. Recipients should not construe any content of this report as legal, tax, regulatory, or investment advice. Before making any financial, legal, or other decisions, you should consult your own independent advisors for specific guidance tailored to your circumstances.

3. Information Accuracy and Completeness This document is provided on an "as is" basis without any representation, warranty, or guarantee, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or fitness for a particular purpose. Any action taken in reliance on the contents of this report is at the user's sole risk. When third-party data, information, services, or products are cited, OSL makes no representation, warranty, or endorsement regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of such third-party materials. OSL assumes no responsibility for any errors, omissions, or liabilities arising from reliance on third-party content. The performance or development of protocols, tokens, or entities mentioned may change significantly due to market, technological, or regulatory factors.

4. Limitation of Opinion The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are based on market conditions and OSL’s understanding as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. This report is intended to provide OSL’s industry observations and strategic thinking and does not represent the official opinion, strategy, or decision of OSL. This document will not be updated, revised, withdrawn, or supplemented, even in light of subsequent developments or new information. The information, forecasts, and opinions expressed are current as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

5. Conflict of Interest Disclosure OSL, its affiliated entities, or employees may hold positions in the assets or entities discussed herein or conduct business related to such assets. OSL has taken reasonable measures to manage such conflicts of interest.

6. Forward-Looking Statement Risk This document may contain forward-looking statements involving known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors. These factors may cause actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. OSL makes no representation, warranty, or endorsement regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of such forward-looking statements.

7. General Disclaimer OSL, its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in connection with the use of, reliance on, or interpretation of the information contained herein, including but not limited to loss of profits, business interruption, loss of data, or damage to reputation.