OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.03.13

1. Crypto Market Shows Strength as BTC Breaks $72K

Showing strong overnight performance, BTC held the $70,000 mark, rising 2.48% over 24 hours and breaking upward to near $72,000 this morning. ETH held the $2,000 level and broke through to $2,150. Middle East geopolitical conflicts persist; US President Trump emphasized prioritizing the prevention of Iranian actions, while Iranian leader Khamenei stated the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, exacerbating market concerns. Oil prices surged over 10% to approach $100 per barrel, and US stocks fell sharply. The crypto market demonstrated resilience driven by ETF inflows, whereas precious metals experienced a slight pullback suppressed by a strong US dollar.

2. Bond Traders Scale Back Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Bond traders are no longer fully pricing in the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cut expectations, with interest rate swaps indicating only a 24-basis-point cut this year. Wednesday night's expectation was around 30 basis points. This shift occurred amid a continuous decline in US Treasuries, where the two-year Treasury yield—most sensitive to Fed policy changes—rose by 4 basis points to near 3.70%. Investors worry that the Middle East conflict will drive up energy prices, leading to a resurgence in inflation.

3. BlackRock Launches Staking-Supported Ethereum ETF

BlackRock has launched a staking-supported Ethereum ETF, the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB), which will begin trading on Nasdaq on Thursday. The fund holds spot Ethereum and utilizes a portion for network staking, providing both price exposure and rewards. This is BlackRock's third crypto ETF, following IBIT (over $55 billion in assets) and ETHA (around $6.5 billion).

4. Binance Futures-to-Spot Volume Ratio Hits 1.5-Year High

The Binance futures-to-spot trading volume ratio surged to 5.1, marking a 1.5-year high since mid-2023. Futures market volume exceeded spot volume by five times, reflecting a trader shift toward leverage and hedging. The rise in this ratio stems not from a contraction in spot trading, but from structural growth in the derivatives market. When the trading focus shifts to derivatives, it typically signals that market price volatility will become more intense and rapid.

5. South Korea's NTS Builds Crypto Investment Profit Tracking System

South Korea's National Tax Service (NTS) is building a cryptocurrency investment profit tracking system in preparation for taxation starting next January. With a budget of 3 billion KRW, the system will utilize AI to analyze abnormal transactions and share data with institutions. A 22% tax rate will apply to virtual asset income exceeding 2.5 million KRW.

6. BTC-to-Gold Ratio Shows Bullish Divergence

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio is showing signs of bullish divergence as selling pressure weakens, falling back to the 12–13 support level. This position acted as resistance in 2017 and turned into support in 2022 and 2023, potentially serving as a reference for Bitcoin's long-term trend bottom. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $906 million over the past month, while the Gold ETF GLD experienced a $3 billion outflow on March 6. Current macroeconomic volatility has created an 'opportunity in risk' for Bitcoin; the US-Israel-Iran conflict is driving market volatility, but capital is gradually flowing back into BTC.

7. USDT Active Address Spikes on BNB Chain Drive BTC Rebounds

On-chain data reveals that during the three largest spikes in USDT active addresses on the BNB Chain over the past year, the price of BTC rebounded each time. USDT is the primary quote currency, and the BNB Chain handles a massive volume of transfers; a surge in active addresses signifies increased capital flow. When this liquidity moves from stablecoins into Bitcoin, buying pressure increases, and the price tends to rebound accordingly.

8. World Liberty Financial Advances AI Agent Autonomous Payments

World Liberty Financial co-founder Zak Folkman stated that the company is advancing the field of AI agent autonomous payments. The USD1 stablecoin is designed for future machine-speed transaction scenarios. The team is developing related technologies, and an upcoming update is set to revolutionize the perception of AI agent autonomous payments.

9. USDC and CCTP Launch on Morph

USDC and Circle's Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) have officially launched on Morph. USDC, serving as the USD-denominated settlement asset within the Morph network, is now issued on Morph by Circle's regulated affiliates. CCTP enables 1:1 cross-chain transfers of USDC between Morph and other supported blockchains by burning tokens on the source chain and natively minting them on the destination chain, thereby maintaining supply integrity.

10. Ethereum Mainnet Deploys ERC-8004 'Trustless Agent' Protocol

The Coinbase Institutional Research team disclosed that the Ethereum mainnet officially deployed the ERC-8004 'Trustless Agent' protocol on January 29, aiming to build core infrastructure for the autonomous interaction of AI agents. The Ethereum mainnet recorded over 22,900 registrations in the three days prior to the protocol's release. The implementation of ERC-8004 marks Ethereum's evolution from a transaction ledger to a neutral coordination engine for the machine economy (M2M).

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