OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.03.12

1. BTC and ETH Experience Overnight Volatility; Higher-than-Expected US CPI Reinforces Fed's Cautious Stance

BTC experienced overnight volatility, touching a low of $69,034 during the day yesterday, then surging to $71,230 after the CPI release before gradually pulling back this morning. Ethereum (ETH) followed the upward trend, hitting a low of $2,010 and rebounding to a high of $2,082 before gradually retreating. The US February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5%, slightly exceeding market expectations but remaining above the Fed's 2% target. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Iran conflict, this reinforces the Federal Reserve's cautious interest rate path, potentially pausing rate cuts and considering rate hikes amid upside inflation risks.

2. FDIC to Propose New Rule: Payment Stablecoins Ineligible for Pass-Through Insurance

FDIC Chairman Travis Hill stated that the FDIC plans to propose a rule clarifying that payment stablecoins subject to the GENIUS Act are not eligible for "pass-through insurance," meaning third-party financial institutions cannot obtain government deposit protection on behalf of users. This move by the FDIC precisely blocks the gray area where stablecoins indirectly obtain deposit insurance through third-party institutions, highlighting regulators' zero-tolerance stance on the systemic risks of crypto assets and forcing stablecoin issuers to further enhance transparency beyond full reserves.

3. xStocks Tokenized Stock Daily Transfer Volume Hits Record High, Surpassing $4 Billion Cumulatively

According to the official xStock dashboard, following Kraken and Nasdaq's announcement to advance their tokenized stock strategy, the transfer volume of xStocks tokenized stocks reached $353 million on March 10, setting a new historical single-day high. Currently, the cumulative transfer volume of xStock tokenized stocks has exceeded $4 billion.

4. CryptoQuant: Ethereum Network Activity Hits All-Time High, But Value Capture Lags

The latest report from CryptoQuant shows that Ethereum network activity has hit all-time highs across multiple metrics, yet the price of ETH has still fallen by about 30% over the past six months. Data indicates that in February 2026, Ethereum's daily active addresses approached 2 million, surpassing the peak of the 2021 bull market, with smart contract calls exceeding 40 million per day. Its value capture capability has failed to keep pace with the growth in network usage, prompting a review of whether ETH's long-term narrative has been cannibalized by low-cost alternatives like Solana.

5. Mastercard Launches Global Partner Program, Recruiting Over 85 Digital Asset Companies

Mastercard has launched a global partner program, recruiting over 85 digital asset companies, payment service providers, and financial institutions, including Circle, Binance, and Gemini Space Station. The initiative aims to scale digital assets and integrate them into existing payment systems. The program will provide crypto companies with card programs, global merchant acceptance, and cross-border settlement services. Currently, stablecoins are viewed as a potential alternative to traditional payment networks. Mastercard's move represents a strategic assimilation of the stablecoin ecosystem by a traditional payment giant, aiming to seize the high ground in cross-border settlements by integrating crypto traffic and avoiding marginalization by emerging on-chain protocols, though it also exposes its underlying concerns about the disruptive potential of digital assets.

6. Goldman Sachs: US Hedge Fund Positioning Sets the Stage for a Sharp Stock Market Rebound

The trading desk at Goldman Sachs stated that the positioning structure of hedge funds in US equities has created conditions for a sharp market rebound following recent volatility. Speculative investors largely maintain long positions at the individual stock level while establishing hedges by shorting ETFs and stock index futures. Currently, right-tail risk is more extreme than left-tail risk, meaning the likelihood of a sharp upward market movement is greater. Given the very high gross exposure and massive shorting in macro products, any positive news could trigger aggressive short covering.

7. US February Core Inflation Slows, But Iran Conflict Sparks Renewed Inflation Fears

US core inflation slowed in February compared to the previous month, indicating that price pressures had eased somewhat before the outbreak of the Iran war. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% from January and 2.5% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous month and marking the slowest pace in nearly five years. After experiencing stubborn inflation for most of last year, inflation has generally trended downward in recent months. However, the Iran war has reignited inflation concerns; the conflict has driven up the costs of oil, gasoline, and fertilizer, potentially exacerbating the cost-of-living pressure on American households ahead of this year's midterm elections. Federal Reserve officials are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting.

8. USDC and CCTP Launch on Ethereum L2 Network Morph

USDC and the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) are now live on Morph, an Ethereum Layer 2 network. Morph is an L2 blockchain focused on payment settlements, supporting digital payments and financial applications. Following this launch, the Morph ecosystem can use USDC for payments, remittances, cross-border transfers, and DeFi transactions, while CCTP supports the cross-chain transfer of USDC between Morph and other blockchains. The first batch of integrators includes Bitget, Bulba, and Stargate. Institutional users can perform fiat and USDC on/off-ramp operations via Circle Mint.

9. Coinbase: SOPR Indicator Recovers, Market Resilience Strengthening

According to the latest market analysis by Coinbase Institutional, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator shows that market resilience is strengthening. The SOPR indicator is used to measure whether recently acquired holders are selling assets at a profit or a loss, which helps identify whether new entrants are panic selling at a loss, thereby flushing out "profit-taking hands" and resetting spot positions. The report notes that since late February 2026, the short-term holder SOPR for both BTC and ETH has rebounded, indicating that recent spot demand has been sufficient to absorb selling pressure. This rebound suggests that market positioning is becoming more solid, and buying power has shown strong support at current price levels.

10. Wells Fargo Applies for "WFUSD" Trademark, Officially Entering the Stablecoin Market

Wells Fargo, one of the top four US banks, has applied to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to register the "WFUSD" trademark. The related service categories involve cryptocurrency, stablecoins, digital asset trading, payments, and software services. The application was submitted on March 10 and has currently been accepted but remains pending review. Wells Fargo's WFUSD trademark application marks the formal entry of the traditional banking industry into the stablecoin market, aiming to capture a share of institutional-grade payments through a proprietary stablecoin. However, this will intensify competition with pure crypto players like Circle and test its execution capabilities under regulatory compliance.

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