OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.02.13

1. Market & Geopolitics: BTC surged then fell to $68,300 (-1.8%); ETH dropped to $1,930 (-1.2%). Precious metals are under pressure, with Gold down 3.2% and Silver plunging 8.5%. Russia reportedly proposed a "Grand Economic Bargain" to the Trump team, offering to return to the dollar settlement system in exchange for eased sanctions and resource cooperation.

2. CFTC Update: The Innovation Advisory Committee member list was announced, featuring 35 industry leaders including Brian Armstrong, Brad Garlinghouse, and Anatoly Yakovenko.

3. Hong Kong Regulation: The Treasury Bureau revealed that the first batch of stablecoin licenses is expected in March, with OTC and custody legislation to be submitted in the summer.

4. Industry Events: The Consensus Web3 conference in Hong Kong is expected to generate over HKD 300 million in direct economic benefits and attract 12,000 to 15,000 attendees.

5. SEC Focus: Chair Paul Atkins stated that prediction markets are a current regulatory priority and is coordinating jurisdiction issues with the CFTC.

6. Institutional Forecast: Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $100,000 and warned of potential further market pain.

7. Coinbase Earnings: Q4 2025 revenue fell 20% to $1.8 billion, swinging from profit to a net loss of $667 million.

8. Vitalik's View: Vitalik Buterin emphasized that crypto incentives should only compensate for early risk, warning that over-subsidizing social attention destroys community quality.

9. TradFi Innovation: LSEG announced the launch of an on-chain settlement system, LSEG Digital Securities Depository, to support tokenized bond and stock trading.

10. Fed Research: A Federal Reserve working paper suggested classifying crypto assets as a separate category for initial margin requirements in derivatives markets to manage high volatility.

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