Trump Postpones Iran Strike, SEC Tokenized Stock Exemption Imminent, Crypto Funds See $1.07B Weekly Outflow

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Consolidating within the $76,000–$77,000 range, experiencing a slight rebound after the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions. However, crypto funds saw a weekly outflow of $1.07 billion, ending a six-week consecutive inflow streak, indicating that short-term selling pressure remains. Approximately 100,000 blocks remain until the next halving.

• ETH: Hovering around $2,100. Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi has plunged over 50% from its 2023 peak, and the market share of Ethereum's lending sector has dropped to 51% from 60% at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, the resignation of two more researchers from the Ethereum Foundation continues to weigh on fundamental confidence.

• US Stocks: The S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, the Nasdaq fell 0.5%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.32%. Lifted by news of Trump postponing military strikes, the market saw a modest rebound; however, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% (hitting a new high since late 2023), reflecting persistent pressure from long-end interest rates.

• Crude Oil: WTI crude oil retreated from an intraday surge of over 4% to close with a gain of less than 1%, as the geopolitical premium rapidly dissipated.

• Fear & Greed Index: Remains in the "Fear" territory (around 27-30), indicating no substantial recovery in market sentiment yet.

Key News

1. Trump Postpones Military Strike on Iran; Geopolitical Tensions Temporarily Ease

At the request of Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, Trump canceled the military strike against Iran originally scheduled for Tuesday. Gulf allies believe a US-Iran agreement is "very close to being reached," with the core condition being Iran's written confirmation that it does not possess nuclear weapons. Trump warned he would launch a "comprehensive, massive attack" if no agreement is reached, though no deadline has been set.

Market Reaction: WTI crude oil gains narrowed significantly, US Treasury yields edged lower, and US stocks rebounded. However, Iran has activated its air defense systems on Qeshm Island, leaving the situation highly uncertain.

2. SEC Plans "Innovation Exemption" for Tokenized Stocks, Allowing Trading on DeFi Platforms

The SEC is expected to release an "innovation exemption" framework for tokenized stocks as early as this week, allowing blockchain-based tokens pegged to publicly traded stocks to be traded on DeFi platforms. The core breakthrough: third parties can launch tokenized stocks without the issuer's consent. However, platforms may lose their eligibility if the tokens do not offer shareholder rights such as voting or dividends. This framework will serve as a 12-to-36-month sandbox experiment and is a key step in the "Project Crypto" workflow driven by SEC Chair Paul Atkins.

3. 30-Year US Treasury Yield Breaches 5%; Market Begins Pricing in Rate Hikes

The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.15%, while the 10-year yield stood at 4.63%. The UK 30-year gilt yield approached 6% (a high since 1998), and German long-term yields touched their highest levels since 2011. Concurrently, China's holdings of US Treasuries have dropped to $700 billion (the lowest since 2008). Traders now anticipate the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in early 2027, completely reversing previous rate-cut expectations. Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as Fed Chair at the White House on Friday, succeeding Jerome Powell.

4. Crypto Funds See $1.07 Billion Weekly Outflow, Snapping Six-Week Inflow Streak

According to CoinShares data, Bitcoin ETFs face severe pressure driven by geopolitically induced sell-offs, while altcoin funds remain relatively stable. Concurrently, Goldman Sachs significantly restructured its crypto ETF portfolio: it liquidated all XRP and Solana ETF positions and slashed its Ethereum ETF exposure by nearly 70%. Bitcoin remains its largest allocated asset ($715 million).

5. Echo Protocol Exploited on Monad Chain, Losing Approximately $76.7 Million

An attacker illicitly minted 1,000 eBTC (about $76.7 million) and extracted funds from Curvance using a previously tested route. So far, 45 eBTC have been collateralized to borrow roughly 11.29 WBTC, bridged to Ethereum, swapped for ETH, and 385 ETH (about $818,000) has been sent to Tornado Cash. The attacker still controls a substantial amount of the illicitly minted eBTC.

6. Google and Blackstone Form AI Cloud Joint Venture; Meta Announces Global Layoffs

Google and Blackstone have co-founded a new AI cloud computing company, with Blackstone investing $5 billion and utilizing Google chips. Meta plans to conduct global layoffs in three phases on May 20, while transferring 7,000 employees to new AI projects and streamlining certain management roles. The AI arms race continues to escalate.

Compliance & Regulation

• Zerohash obtained the first EMI license under the MiCA framework and will offer stablecoin and brokerage services in Europe.

• Galaxy successfully secured a New York BitLicense.

• Minnesota banks and credit unions will be permitted to provide crypto custody services starting August 1.

• The Bank of England and the FCA proposed a "joint vision" for tokenization and launched a joint consultation.

• Revolut launched its first physical crypto card.

Project Updates

• Tempo (backed by Stripe and Paradigm) integrated with the Morpho lending protocol (approx. $7.5 billion in scale), transitioning into an all-in-one infrastructure for payments, lending, and yield.

• Solana's Q1 on-chain GDP reached $342 million, with PumpFun contributing $124.7 million in revenue. The Alpenglow upgrade aims to reduce transaction confirmation times from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.

• Kraken's Q1 revenue grew 3% year-over-year to $507 million.

• Bitwise plans to use Hyperliquid ETF fees to add HYPE to its balance sheet.

• BNB Chain launched the BNBAgent SDK, enabling AI agents to utilize on-chain identity, automated payments, and persistent storage features.

• Tokenized RWAs (Real-World Assets) scale has neared $31.4 billion, approximately 5 times the level seen in early 2025.

Legal & Enforcement

• Polymarket users suspected of insider trading: interconnected accounts profited $2.4 million from predictions on US military actions against Iran, boasting a 98% win rate.

• Swan Bitcoin faces a nearly $1 billion lawsuit, accused of using insider information to avoid losses during the Prime Trust bankruptcy.

• Coinbase assisted UK police in solving a kidnapping and robbery case, leading to 5 convictions. CEO Brian Armstrong stated the investigation team successfully tracked suspects via blockchain forensics.

• An Ohio man was sentenced to 9 years in prison for a $10 million crypto Ponzi scheme.

Market Analysis

Following yesterday's flash crash, the market is digesting two contradictory signals:

• Easing Signal: Trump postponed military strikes, causing the crude oil geopolitical premium to rapidly dissipate and offering some short-term relief from geopolitical panic.

• Pressure Signal: The 30-year US Treasury yield breached 5%, crypto funds saw massive weekly outflows, and Goldman Sachs heavily slashed its altcoin ETF exposure. The market has begun pricing in a rate hike for 2027 instead of a cut, representing a fundamental narrative shift.

DeFi TVL has shrunk over 50% from its peak, and the Ethereum lending sector remains sluggish, creating a negative feedback loop between on-chain activity and price action.

Conversely, the scale of tokenized RWAs has surged to $31.4 billion (5x the start of the year), and the SEC's tokenized stock exemption is imminent—indicating a clear capital migration trend from speculative DeFi toward compliant RWAs.Furthermore, Citi noted that Bitcoin faces greater quantum computing risks compared to Ethereum, a gap stemming from governance models rather than purely technical aspects. This perspective warrants long-term attention but does not constitute a core trading factor in the short term.

OSL View

The current market exhibits clear structural divergence: short-term risk assets are suffering capital outflows, while the build-out of long-term compliant infrastructure is accelerating.From the SEC's tokenized stock exemption and the Bank of England's tokenization vision to Zerohash securing a MiCA license and Minnesota opening up crypto custody, these signals point to a definitive trend: traditional financial institutions are embracing on-chain assets at an unprecedented pace, with "compliance" serving as their entry threshold.Although the $1.07 billion outflow from crypto funds leans bearish in the short term, Goldman Sachs's operational logic is highly instructive: it is not exiting the crypto market but rather concentrating its allocation on Bitcoin ($715 million), which offers higher certainty, while liquidating XRP and SOL.

Institutional risk appetite is becoming increasingly clear—focusing on assets with regulatory certainty.As the macroeconomic narrative shifts from "when to cut rates" to "when to hike rates," platforms that offer compliant fiat on/off ramps, institutional-grade custody, and transparent fee structures will become the preferred gateways for mainstream capital allocation amidst market volatility.

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