OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.03.05

Daily Crypto Market Updates

1. Bitcoin Rally: BTC surged over 7% overnight, briefly breaching $74,000, driven primarily by short covering and position adjustments. Polymarket predicts a 78% chance of BTC hitting $75,000 in March. ETFs saw net inflows, the Coinbase premium turned positive, Circle minted over 2 billion USDC, and BlackRock saw inflows of 17,642 BTC since late February.

2. Kraken's Fed Milestone: Kraken became the first crypto firm granted a Federal Reserve "master account," allowing direct access to the core payment system. This enables direct dollar settlement without intermediary banks, significantly reducing costs. Banking organizations expressed "deep concern."

3. Macro & Technical Drivers: The BTC rise reflects US-China policy divergence and global risk repricing. MVRV metrics moved up, supported by RMB appreciation and China's RRR cut. The "Jane Street ETF suppression" logic has been falsified.

4. US Jobs Data: February ADP employment increased by 63,000 (the largest gain since Nov 2025), reinforcing the rationale for the Fed to maintain tight policies and compressing the room for short-term monetary easing.

5. US Buying Returns: Since March 1, approximately $3.2 billion in BTC was bought at market price across exchanges. The Coinbase premium index turned positive after 40 consecutive days of negative values, signaling the return of institutional buying.

6. Goldman Sachs Forecast: If the situation in Iran de-escalates rapidly, the Fed is expected to cut rates twice in 2026.

7. Standard Chartered Appointment: Appointed former JPMorgan exec Naveen Mallela to lead global payments, focusing on APAC RWA, cross-border settlements, and stablecoins. The bank aims to compete with Citi in the HKD stablecoin sector.

8. Binance Alpha Listings: Launched tokenized stocks for Alibaba and Palantir, as well as COPPER products, bridging TradFi assets via the Ondo protocol.

9. BNB Chain Acquisition: Prediction market Predict.fun acquired Probable. Despite the team's Binance background, the sector faces structural bottlenecks and a low success rate for implementation.

10. Coinbase Transformation: Officially launched stock trading with 24/5 extended hours and zero commissions, integrating with Yahoo Finance to accelerate its transition into a full-asset exchange.

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