Weekly Market News — Macro, Policy & Liquidity Conditions

This week's macro backdrop combined policy signals with easing fiscal uncertainties both in the United States and Asian countries, primarily in Hong Kong.

In the United States, Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran argued on November 7 that widespread adoption of dollar‑based stablecoins could lower the economy's neutral interest rate by increasing loanable funds and boosting demand for U.S. Treasury bills, with factors that point to a lower policy‑rate environment.

Complementing this, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) used Fintech Week to announce a sweeping relaxation of its digital‑asset rules. From November 3 onwards, licensed virtual‑asset trading platforms (VATPs) may share global order books rather than being ring‑fenced in the city, and can distribute new tokens and SFC‑regulated stablecoins with less than a 12‑month track record to professional investors.

At the same time, Hong Kong Monetary Authority also rolled out a "Fintech 2030" roadmap and a tokenization sandbox to support real‑value transactions in tokenized money‑market funds. Meanwhile, in U.S. policy circles, a 40‑day government shutdown that had choked off economic data ended when the Senate approved funding through January 30, 2026. Analysts suggest the resolution would restore the data flow and reinforce the Fed's easing bias.

Looking ahead, investors will scrutinize the October CPI and real‑earnings reports due on November 13. The soft figures could bolster expectations of another rate cut, while a hotter reading might revive hawkish fears.

Finally, Hong Kong continued to outpace the U.S. in spot‑crypto products: ChinaAMC's Solana ETF, approved by the SFC and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a 0.99% management fee, began trading on 27 October and has helped channel Asian inflows into Solana. This, along with the city's deregulation push, underscores how regional policy initiatives are shaping capital rotations in the digital‑asset market.

Key Market Review — Flows, Positioning & Institutional Behavior

Market breadth remains narrow: The overall crypto market stayed directional but exhibited fragility as participation thinned. Over the week, the global crypto‑asset market cap fell 2.6% to $3.46 trillion while 24‑hour volumes rose to $292 billion. Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to $101,674 and as low as $99,008.84 on November 5. While Ether fell 6.0% to $3,299, and Solana slid 3.0% to $156. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 20, deep in "fear" territory.

ETF flows indicate rotation:

Institutional and Treasury Positioning

• Corporate treasuries remained cautious. Large U.S. corporates have yet to materially increase BTC exposure at current prices. Metaplanet, a Tokyo‑listed firm, provided a notable exception on Oct 31, it drew $100 million from a $500 million Bitcoin‑collateralised credit facility to acquire more BTC, fund share buybacks and support its options‑premium business.

• The facility, announced three days earlier, will finance a year‑long buyback of up to 150 million shares and additional Bitcoin purchases. Metaplanet held ≈30,823 BTC at month‑end and targets 210,000 BTC by 2027.

• Spot XRP ETF imminent. On Nov 10, NovaDius Wealth Management president Nate Geraci said that with the government shutdown ending, the first spot XRP ETF structured under the Securities Act of 1933 could launch this week. The Canary XRP ETF is scheduled to go live November 13, pending SEC approval.

DeFi Overview — TVL Dynamics & Protocol Rotation

Broad TVL contraction: DeFi suffered one of its toughest weeks in months. Sentora and DeFiLlama data show TVL across major networks fell from nearly $150B to around $130B as users de‑risked. Ethereum, which still holds over 62% of DeFi liquidity, saw TVL drop ~13 % to ~$74.2B.

While Solana and Arbitrum experienced sharper declines (~14%), with TVLs around $10B and $3B, respectively. BNB Smart Chain and Base also lost roughly 10–12 % of TVL. The pull‑back reflects a combination of risk aversion and a series of security incidents.

Security breaches amplify withdrawals:

• On Nov 3, the Balancer V2 vaults were exploited for more than $120M. Attackers manipulated a rounding error in the EXACT_OUT swap function of the batchSwap feature, draining funds from the pools. The team explained that incorrect rounding allowed manipulation of pool balances and subsequent withdrawals.

• Shortly after, Stream Finance disclosed that about $93M in assets managed by an external fund manager had gone missing. The protocol halted withdrawals and deposits, triggering knock‑on effects: DeFi liquidity provider Elixir shut down its deUSD synthetic dollar token. These back‑to‑back failures deepened user distrust, reinforcing concerns about DeFi's structural vulnerabilities.

• Liquidity remains concentrated in over‑collateralized lending and staking protocols. Aave, Lido, EigenLayer and ether.fi continue to dominate. Capital is rotating away from higher‑yield structured products into safer staking and lending platforms.

Funding Rate Snapshot — Leverage Rebuilding

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/AccumulatedFundingRate (The data is based on the last 7 days funding rate from Nov 3 to Nov 10, 2025, and is annualized.

Takeaways:

• Leverage is returning unevenly, indicating that institutional markets (BTC / ETH) remain selective, while retail speculation (XRP / DOGE) is more aggressive.

• SOL's negative funding with ETF Spot inflows signals a suppressed price relative to demand, a condition that often precedes mean-reversion rallies if macro stabilizes.

• Short-term volatility risk is elevated due to funding/Spot divergence.

Outlook for Nov 10 – 14, 2025

• October CPI release on (November 13): The first official macro data since the 40‑day government shutdown will shape expectations for the Dec 10 FOMC meeting. A soft print would bolster the case for another rate cut; a hotter reading could revive hawkish fears.

  • Investors should expect a high market sensitivity for BTC and ETH as softer inflation supports the upside, which higher CPI could trigger risk-off pullbacks.

• Spot XRP ETF Launch (November 13): Canary's 1933‑Act spot XRP ETF may debut pending SEC approval. It would be the first regulated spot XRP product under the same framework as BTC/ETH ETFs.

  • This indicates a strong inflow would broaden large-cap rotation beyond BTC or ETH. A delayed launch could dampen sentiment.

• U.S. Government shutdown resolution: Final House vote expected this week to end the 40‑day shutdown. Ending the shutdown would restore economic data releases and improve risk appetite.

• Hong Kong Solana ETF Flows: After debuting on Oct 27, the ChinaAMC Solana ETF continues to attract attention. Weekly flows provide a gauge of Asia's institutional & retail appetite for non‑BTC majors. The continued inflows support SOL rotation, which means a waning interest could slow momentum.

• Stablecoin supply growth (USDT/USDC): Increases in stablecoin supply signal greater on‑chain credit expansion and fresh capital entering crypto markets. And the rising supply supports a sustainable rally, while a stagnant or declining supply may signal a pause.