OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.04.10

1. Market Overview: BTC, ETH, and Precious Metals

BTC and ETH saw a modest rebound overnight and into this morning. BTC rose 1.88% to $72,222, recovering from an intraday low of $71,639 to hit a high near $72,305; ETH climbed 0.83% to $2,197 in tandem. In the commodities market, Gold strengthened in the short term, up 1.20% overnight to $4,784.6/oz, while Silver rose 0.74% to $75.89/oz.

Macroeconomically, setbacks in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations mean geopolitical risks have not fully receded. While risk appetite for crypto assets is recovering, gains remain capped. Precious metals continue to benefit from Fed policy uncertainty, tariff pressures, and low real yields, maintaining a strong bullish trend supported by institutional and physical buying.

2. CME Bitcoin Futures Hit Multi-Year Lows

The CME Bitcoin futures market continues to weaken. Data shows that the average daily Open Interest (OI) for March 2026 fell below $8 billion, dropping further to approximately $7.2 billion in early April—the lowest level since February 2024 and marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Analysts suggest this downturn is primarily driven by the massive unwinding of the "basis trade." Previously, institutions drove CME growth by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures to capture price spreads. However, as Bitcoin prices retreated from highs of $120,000 to below $70,000, annualized basis yields have compressed significantly.

3. US PCE Data and Macro Outlook

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty and stabilizing Bitcoin prices after they touched $73,000. Data showed February Core PCE rose 3% YoY, with a 0.4% MoM decrease. While the market was also influenced by a slight easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, analysts warn that current PCE figures do not yet reflect potential energy price shocks.

Despite the data not triggering significant volatility, investors remain cautious regarding Fed rate cut expectations for the year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian noted that upcoming CPI data will be more critical than the PCE, especially given oil price fluctuations. Trading remains range-bound, with liquidity concentrated between $69,000 and $76,000.

4. HKMC to Launch Massive Digital Bond Issue

The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC) plans to raise over HK$12 billion ($1.5 billion) through its inaugural digital bond issuance, potentially the largest of its kind globally. HKMC is a government-owned financial services provider with total assets of approximately HK$221.8 billion.

Sources indicate that HKMC could begin marketing these multi-currency digital bonds (denominated in HKD and offshore RMB) as early as next month. By utilizing blockchain technology for issuance, trading, and settlement, the debt instrument aims to achieve faster settlement times, lower costs, and enhanced scalability.

5. Bitmine Transitions to NYSE and Expands Buyback

Ethereum treasury company Bitmine announced that its common stock will begin trading on the NYSE at the market open on April 9, 2026, retaining the ticker "BMNR." Alongside the listing upgrade, the Board of Directors unanimously approved expanding the company’s 2025 share repurchase program, increasing the authorized total from $1 billion to $4 billion.

Tom Lee stated that the $4 billion expansion reflects a commitment to shareholders, noting that Bitmine intends to repurchase shares accretively should the stock price fall below its intrinsic value.

6. Galaxy Digital Annual Results

Galaxy Digital’s annual report revealed a net loss of approximately $241 million, primarily due to unrealized losses on digital assets and investment positions. However, on an adjusted basis, the company recorded an EBITDA of approximately $216 million, with core operations profitable under non-GAAP measures.

The digital asset segment—covering trading, lending, asset management, and staking—reported an adjusted gross profit of approximately $505 million. Following the earnings release, Galaxy's stock price surged by over 11%.

7. Circle Launches CPN Managed Payments

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire announced via X the launch of CPN Managed Payments, a one-stop stablecoin payment solution for banks, PSPs, fintechs, and big tech firms. The product supports payment flows between fiat-to-fiat and fiat-to-stablecoin.

Circle manages the wallet infrastructure, on-chain operations (such as minting and custody), and compliance/licensing, allowing institutions to integrate without building their own blockchain capabilities. Relevant APIs and product details have been released.

8. Michael Saylor: Bitcoin Bottomed at $60K

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated at a Mizuho investor event that Bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000 as forced sellers exited the market. Saylor noted that the recent decline was driven by liquidations from over-leveraged miners and "weak hands," and that market equilibrium will shift as supply clears.

Additionally, Saylor dismissed the threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network as purely theoretical and long-term, noting that Bitcoin's open-source structure allows for quantum-resistant upgrades well before any actual attack occurs.

9. Morph Report: Stablecoin Settlement to Reach $50T by 2026

Morph released its "State of Stablecoins" report, projecting that stablecoins will account for 10% of global cross-border payments by 2030. Current annual stablecoin transaction volume has reached $33 trillion, surpassing the combined $25.5 trillion of Visa and Mastercard.

The report highlights that 60% of volume is driven by B2B payments. Morph predicts annual settlement volume will exceed $50 trillion by 2026, with AI agents becoming major transaction originators by 2027. The total market cap is expected to hit $1.9 trillion by 2030.

10. Geopolitical Impact on Oil and Energy Markets

According to the Financial Times, U.S. crude oil exports are expected to reach 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, a nearly 33% increase from March, as Asian buyers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern oil disrupted by the Iran conflict. Demand from Asia surged 82% to 2.5 million bpd.

Data from Kpler shows 68 empty tankers heading to the U.S., compared to just 24 before the war began on February 28. Although a two-week ceasefire was announced Tuesday, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday following Israeli strikes in Lebanon. WTI crude hit a four-year high above $110/barrel earlier this week. To combat rising costs, the Trump administration has released over 170 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), yet U.S. gas prices have still topped $4 per gallon for the first time in four years.

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