1. BTC returned nearly 8.5% last week, compared to a historical average return of -1.03%, recording its largest single-week gain since September 2025. Over the weekend, BTC edged up to currently around $72,500, having touched a high of $73,000 before pulling back, with lows dipping to near $70,300. ETH surged to a high of $2,200 before retreating to around $2,060. Amid rising geopolitical risks (such as the US-Iran conflict) and ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, the crypto market has shown resilience and benefited from institutional inflows. Long-term demand support remains strong, but attention must be paid to the potential suppression of asset prices by a stronger US dollar.

2. The trilateral conflict involving the US, Iran, and Israel has entered its third week, and the ongoing chaos in the energy commodities market is evolving into a major issue. Global stock markets have recently taken a heavy hit; affected by frequent ship attacks, crude oil prices have soared from around $80 to currently near $100. The US dollar has hit new highs against most currencies, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising above its peak from last November. The risk of a strong pullback after the DXY peaks needs to be carefully assessed. Although the crypto market is under short-term pressure from risk aversion, this round of geopolitical maneuvering may accelerate institutional allocation of Bitcoin as a parallel safe-haven asset, challenging the long-term narrative of traditional US dollar hegemony.

3. BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets stated in a livestream that among the top 20 global ETF inflows, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF has reached $26 billion, ranking fourth globally. The executive noted that this phenomenon indicates Bitcoin is undergoing intense turnover and a period of long-term accumulation. Furthermore, 90% of investors in the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF are buying the dip, while only 10% are hedge funds using basis trading for short-term, high-frequency trades. If the Fed's tightening cycle is prolonged, there may be a risk of a systemic drawdown following the turnover peak. It is necessary to prioritize assessing long-position crowding to avoid a potential liquidity cliff.

4. Data platform Artemis posted on X that the probability on Polymarket for USDT's market cap to reach $200 billion by year-end is currently 79%, while the probability for USDC to reach $100 billion is 60%. This means USDT (current market cap $184 billion) only needs to grow by 8%, and USDC (current market cap $81.1 billion) needs to grow by 23%. For comparison, in 2025, USDT's market cap grew by 36%, and USDC's grew by a massive 72%.

5. Circle has released Circle Skills, an open-source AI development tool for building applications based on USDC, EURC, Arc, and the Circle developer platform. Developers and AI agents can call this component via Cursor, Claude Code, Codex, and other Skills-supported agent tools to generate integration solutions for stablecoin payments, cross-chain transfers, wallet operations, and smart contract logic.

6. Galaxy Research stated that if the US crypto regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, is not approved by the Senate committee by the end of April, its chances of passing in 2026 will drop significantly. The dispute over stablecoin yields is the main obstacle, with other issues including DeFi, developer protection, and SEC authority. The bill needs to enter the full Senate voting agenda by early May.

7. Citi, PwC, and Solana have completed a Proof of Concept (PoC) for trade finance draft tokenization, allowing suppliers to issue tokenized receivables and sell them at a discount to banks. The testing was conducted in a controlled environment and did not involve real client transactions. The trade finance market size is approximately $10 trillion.

8. Tom Lee stated that US stocks might bottom out in March 2026, suggesting that high oil prices could drive funds into the US market, which is dominated by growth stocks. He also noted that current private credit risks are more of a localized issue rather than a systemic crisis. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood mentioned that current market sentiment is full of fear, but such environments are often accompanied by a gradual market recovery. She believes AI is still in the early stages of a technological revolution, with related companies experiencing rapid revenue growth.

9. Coinbase Institutional pointed out that the latest macro data shows US non-farm payroll growth is cooling, challenging the previous narrative of a "resilient labor market." At the same time, Bitcoin's value proposition as a relatively independent asset may be further enhanced in the eyes of institutional investors. Additionally, the rise in systematic leverage ratios reflects improving participation in the crypto market. Against the backdrop of recent geopolitical turmoil disrupting traditional financial markets, crypto market sentiment may be shifting, with Bitcoin performing relatively strongly. Since March of this year, Bitcoin's trend has outperformed the US stock market, and market views suggest the crypto market may be gradually emerging from a period of "extreme pessimism."

10. MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny stated in a report that market expectations of oil price hikes triggered by the Iran war might prompt some central banks to raise interest rates, but this scenario will only benefit the currencies of economies whose growth remains resilient. He noted: "Raising rates in a weak economic environment is generally seen as bearish for a currency." Amid expectations of further rate hikes and potential improvements in terms of trade brought by rising energy prices, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has become one of the best-performing G10 currencies. LSEG data shows that the market currently estimates an 80% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday.

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