Rate Cut Probability Sharply Contracts; This Week's Fed Minutes and Data to Set the Tone for Crypto

Focus View

What impact might the Fed's actions this week have on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?

With the US government shutdown over and the economy fully reopening, the cryptocurrency market is set to face one of the most challenging weeks of the year in terms of macroeconomics.

The focus is concentrated on three areas: the restart of delayed economic data releases, the Federal Reserve's policy signals, and changes in liquidity. The US will sequentially release data, including manufacturing and housing indicators, to assess the damage caused by the shutdown to the economy. Concurrently, investors will closely monitor the October FOMC Meeting Minutes, due to be released on Tuesday (November 19), for signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding the magnitude or timing of further interest rate cuts. Currently, market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped by approximately 44 percentage points since the high in early October. The Fed's "higher for longer" hawkish stance exerts continuous pressure on risk assets. Furthermore, the Fed's Balance Sheet Report, due on Thursday, will update liquidity conditions, and its changes may indirectly influence crypto asset trading sentiment by impacting the funding markets. Overall, the dissipation of rate cut expectations and the tightening of financial conditions are the key macroeconomic factors contributing to the decline in Bitcoin's price and exacerbating the overall market risk sentiment.

Bitcoin's decline reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut. Source: Crypto Rover on X

OSL Trading Focus

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC failed to rebound this week, staying below $95,000. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as ETH (down over 11%) and SOL (down 15%), performed worse. Analysts attribute the current sell-off to an "information vacuum" in key economic data caused by the US government shutdown, leading to uncertainty regarding monetary policy direction. Crypto-related stocks were mixed; MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock fell by 4%, dropping below $200; while Hut 8, Bitcoin of America, and Robinhood saw slight gains. Amid persistent macro uncertainty, analysts have set a downside target for Bitcoin at $84,000.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has recently dropped approximately 22% from its high, breaking below a long-term trend line and approaching critical support areas watched by the market. Analyst Crypto Patel pointed out that the $2,850 area is the first "FVG Support" closely monitored by traders. Should this level hold, ETH could rebound to new highs; however, a break below $2,850 would target the next crucial "Bullish OB Support"area around $2,200.

Last Week's Market Headlines

Market Dynamics

Fed Division Over December Rate Cut Intensifies

Divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding a December rate cut are widening, a level of divergence almost unprecedented during Chair Powell's nearly eight-year tenure. Officials are split over whether persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market poses the greater threat, complicating the seemingly feasible year-end rate cut plan. Although the market still assigns a high probability to a cut, this internal split makes the outcome of the December meeting difficult to predict.

Harvard Endowment Fund Makes Rare Move into Bitcoin with $443M Bet on BlackRock's IBIT

Harvard University's endowment fund disclosed in its latest 13F filing that, as of Q3 2025, it held $443 million worth of BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) shares (6.8 million shares), making it the fund's largest single position among its reported US listed public equity holdings, accounting for just over 20%. This move is considered highly significant.

Ether Plunges 8%, ETF Outflows Exceed $1.4 Billion, Long-Term Holders Selling

Ethereum (ETH) suffered from dual macro and structural pressures, plummeting 14% from its Thursday high of $3,565, wiping out all previous gains. The downward pressure stems from three key factors: US spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $1.4 billion since late October; network fundamentals have weakened, with a sharp drop in monthly active addresses and fees; and Glassnode data shows that Long-Term Holders (LTHs) selling velocity has surged to its highest level since 2021. Furthermore, the Fed's hawkish stance dampened expectations for a December rate cut, leading to overall crypto weakness.

US Government Set to Reopen, SEC and CFTC May Accelerate Crypto Regulation and Product Approvals

A bipartisan agreement in the US Senate is expected to end the 41-day government shutdown this week, allowing the SEC and CFTC to resume normal operations. Upon resumption, the SEC may prioritize issuing "exemptive relief" to support tokenization and crypto business development. Crypto ETFs for SOL, Litecoin, and HBAR enabled during the shutdown under unified listing standards may automatically take effect upon the SEC's return.

Tether Treasury Minted 1 Billion USDT on Ethereum Network Early November 11th

According to Whale Alert monitoring, Tether Treasury minted 1 billion new USDT on the Ethereum network.

General News

US SEC Pushes for Regulatory Clarity, Grayscale Files for NYSE IPO

The US SEC Chair proposed a Howey Test-based token classification system, clarifying that digital commodities are not securities themselves and that investment contracts can terminate, pushing crypto regulation toward clarity. Concurrently, Grayscale, which previously engaged in a long legal battle with the SEC, has filed an IPO application with the NYSE, planning an Up-C structure, with its AUM reaching $35 billion by the end of September.

Warren Buffett's Retirement Symbolizes Retreat of Traditional Value Investing Era

Warren Buffett, dubbed the "Oracle of Omaha," announced his retirement at year-end. The departure of the legendary figure, who was critical of Bitcoin, is interpreted by the market as the fading of the traditional value investing era—one predicated on cash flow and compound interest—while sovereign funds and asset managers increasingly prioritize crypto asset allocation.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent: Weakening Stablecoin Regulation Poses Risks

Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Broadbent recently stated that greater efforts are needed to guide consumers in identifying unsafe tokens issued by El Salvador, emphasizing the significant risk in weakening stablecoin regulation. He noted that the prior withdrawals from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Circle provided guidance for drafting the latest stablecoin regulatory proposals.

What to Watch This Week: Upcoming Events (Nov 17 - Nov 20)

• 🌐 Community Event: Ethereum Devconnect will be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 17.

• 🇺🇸 Policy/Regulation: The Federal Reserve will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on November 20 (Beijing Time).

• 🇧🇷 Policy/Regulation: The Central Bank of Brazil will discuss the issue of central bank holdings of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin reserves at its Autumn Meeting on November 19.

• 🎬 Platform Governance: YouTube will strengthen enforcement against online gambling and graphic content involving digital items like NFTs, which have monetary value, and expand age restrictions.