OSL Research Daily Brief | 2026.03.11

1. Market Dynamics: The market experienced mild fluctuations this morning. BTC rose 1.1% overnight, peaking at around $71,814 before pulling back to near $69,200. ETH gained 1.0% overnight, touching an intraday high of $2,088 and dropping to a low of $2,006. On the macro front, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers releasing emergency oil reserves to ease concerns over oil price shocks, coupled with continuous institutional inflows into long-term BTC and ETH holdings, overall market risk appetite is recovering. However, potential impacts of geopolitical uncertainties on commodity prices still require caution.

2. On-Chain Data: According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, during Bitcoin's recent correction below $70,000, traders heavily bought the dip, accumulating nearly 600,000 BTC, valued at approximately $42.48 billion at current prices. Notably, about 200,000 BTC were purchased in the past two weeks alone. At the beginning of this year, the amount of BTC last moved in the $60,000 to $70,000 range was about 997,000. Following the recent drop below $70,000, this figure has surged to approximately 1.558 million BTC. This indicates that about 8% of the circulating supply was acquired in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, forming a dense cost basis zone that could serve as a crucial support level in the future.

3. Macroeconomics: February's non-farm payroll data showed weaker-than-expected employment performance, contrasting sharply with the market's general expectation of strong resilience. However, market expectations for interest rate cuts have not seen significant adjustments; interest rate market data suggests the next rate cut is still highly likely to occur in the second half of the year. This week, both CPI and PCE data will be released. Approaching next week's Federal Reserve decision, whether inflation data can reproduce cooling signals and resonate with employment will be the market's focus. The data is unlikely to shake the Fed's wait-and-see stance.

4. Platform Updates: Kraken's tokenized stock trading platform, xStocks, has launched a points program to reward users who trade tokenized US stocks, provide liquidity, and utilize related assets in DeFi on its platform. Points will be recorded based on multi-chain integration and trading scenarios, and participants may receive benefits related to the platform's ecosystem in the future.

5. Institutional Insights: Bitfinex released a report noting Bitcoin's unexpected resilience recently. The derivatives market has entered a "deleveraging wave," with speculative froth almost entirely dissipating. Price discovery is now driven by spot demand rather than derivatives leverage. The Bitcoin market is transitioning from a leverage-driven correction to a macro liquidity-driven, high-conviction mean reversion phase. Prices may form a stable rebound supported by spot demand and institutional accumulation.

6. Hong Kong Market: A report by the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) reveals that over the next three years, many Hong Kong family offices plan to increase their allocations to private equity, digital assets, private credit, and venture capital, with interest expected to rise significantly. Giorgio Valente, head of HKIMR, stated: "The digital asset market is still in its early stages, but many long-term investors, including family offices, are paying attention to this space and reassessing their investment strategies." The report is based on a survey of 101 single and multi-family offices conducted from October 2024 to April 2025, with about 44% managing at least $1 billion in assets, primarily sourced from Hong Kong, mainland China, and other parts of Asia.

7. Regulatory Updates: Mike Selig, the 16th Chairman of the US CFTC, stated at the FIAconnect global clearing market conference in Florida that the US is in the midst of a technological revolution driven by AI, blockchain, and prediction markets. The CFTC's key priorities for the coming years include: establishing clear rules (including the classification of crypto perpetual contracts) to ensure the US maintains its status as a global crypto hub; ending the jurisdictional turf war with the SEC and the "regulation by enforcement" model; setting standards for prediction markets; and promoting the US as a leading market for AI computing power.

8. Stablecoin Adoption: Stablecoins are quietly becoming a parallel currency in emerging markets. Over 99.9% of stablecoin transactions are denominated in US dollars, providing convenience for economies with scarce bank branches and depreciating local currencies. In 2025, small stablecoin transactions (under $10,000) grew approximately 10-fold, from 316 million to 3.2 billion, mostly originating from emerging markets. On BNB Chain and Polygon, the cost per transaction is less than $0.05, cheaper than a bus ride to the bank.

9. Tokenized Assets: The total on-chain value of tokenized stocks has surpassed $1 billion. Ondo Finance and Backed Finance's xStocks platform hold the majority of the market share in tokenized stock issuance and trading. Ondo Finance accounts for about 58%, while xStocks holds roughly 24%, forming an early duopoly in the sector.

10. Research Reports: According to the latest report from investment firm Bernstein, driven by increased stablecoin adoption and the development of Agentic Finance, the stock price of USDC issuer Circle (CRCL) is expected to reach $190. This implies a potential upside of about 60%, building on the stock's doubling over the past few weeks. Stablecoin adoption is gradually decoupling from crypto market cycles. Despite market volatility, USDC's supply remains near its historical high of $7.8 billion. Stablecoins have begun to transcend mere crypto trading purposes, showing strong performance in digital payments, particularly through integration with traditional card networks like Visa and the application of the Circle Payments Network in cross-border settlements.

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