OSL Research Daily Brief | February 3,2026

1. Market Movements: BTC surged overnight to approximately $79,000 before retracing slightly; ETH strengthened in tandem, rising about 2.2% in 24 hours. Gold and silver rebounded from lows.

2. US Regulatory Talks: The White House convened crypto industry groups like Coinbase and bank associations to discuss the regulatory treatment of stablecoin rewards, aiming to push bipartisan digital asset legislation, though banks fear deposit displacement.

3. HK Stablecoin Licenses: HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue revealed that 36 institutions submitted applications for the first round of stablecoin licenses. Evaluation is accelerating with the aim of issuing the first batch in March, which will be small in number to maintain prudence.

4. Market Cycle Outlook: A Bernstein report indicates the crypto market remains in a short-term bear cycle but expects a reversal within 2026 (or H1), seeing a Bitcoin bottom in the $60k range before starting a definitive cycle.

5. Institutional Holdings: Strategy Inc. disclosed the purchase of 855 BTC for approximately $75.3 million at an average price of ~$87,974. As of February 1, 2026, total holdings reached 713,502 BTC, with a cumulative investment of ~$54.26 billion.

6. Vitalik on Architecture: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed that future on-chain mechanisms adopt a "two-layer structure" design, including an open, accountable execution layer and a decentralized, non-financialized preference-judgment layer to enhance resistance to capture.

7. Mining Economics: f2pool stated that with Bitcoin's weekly drop approaching 15%, miners with 23.3 W/T efficiency are near the break-even point at a BTC price of ~$75,000; further declines will increase pressure on high-energy-consumption models.

8. Regulatory Criticism: The NY Attorney General and other prosecutors criticized the GENIUS Act for gaps in combating fraud and returning stolen funds, specifically naming Tether and Circle for insufficient cooperation in freezing and returning assets.

9. Exchange Performance: Bloomberg reports a sharp drop in crypto exchange trading volumes, with Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish shares falling ~40%–55% over the past three months, leading to downgraded Q4 and near-term earnings expectations.

10. Fund Outflows: CoinShares data shows digital asset investment products saw net outflows of ~$1.7 billion last week (Bitcoin $1.32b, Ethereum $308m), with AUM shrinking by ~$73 billion since the October 2025 peak.