Weekly Bitcoin Analysis (June 29 - July 03, 2026) : BlackRock, NFP, PMI & Market Outlook

Jun 29, 2026

Our analysis was mixed this week. The question of when BlackRock would buy was overshadowed by the U.S. attack on Iran after Iran targeted a Singapore-flagged oil tanker for allegedly not complying with its regulations.

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Based on the data:

  1. Monday Bullish prediction was correct, with a long wick. The PBOC kept its Loan Prime Rate unchanged, but I was still wrong about predicting when BlackRock would buy. Throughout the week, BlackRock sold aggressively. Could it be that BlackRock already knew the U.S. would launch its attack on Friday after the U.S. stock market closed?

  2. Tuesday Bearish prediction was incorrect. I expected the Manufacturing PMI to decline, but it actually increased. Remarkable, isn’t it? What I want to highlight is that Bitcoin did react to the release of the Manufacturing PMI data because that’s where the money was flowing. Once again, I was wrong about predicting BlackRock’s buying activity.

  3. Wednesday Bearish prediction was correct, but for the wrong reason. I expected New Home Sales to increase, but they actually declined. Iran’s attack on a Singapore-flagged oil tanker fueled concerns over escalating conflict, which eventually led to the U.S. retaliation on Friday.

  4. Thursday Bearish prediction was correct, but I was still wrong about BlackRock buying. Meanwhile, my prediction that PCE would increase turned out to be correct.

  5. Friday A Pump and Dump occurred. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in higher, and the candle closed bullish with a dominant upper wick. The University of Michigan survey suggested inflation expectations had declined, but I still haven’t received the latest BlackRock report.

Let’s break down this week’s data:

Monday, June 29, 2026

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When looking at economic data, pay attention to the star ratings. One-star events generally have a smaller impact on the DXY than three-star events. I only focus on three-star events, so Monday is effectively considered to have no major economic data.

However, I’m concerned about the possibility of another Iranian attack during U.S. trading hours. I expect this Monday to resemble last Monday a bullish candle with a long wick.

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Tuesday, June 30, 2026

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9:30 PM WITA - China’s Manufacturing PMI

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The U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, which is impressive. Ideally, China’s Manufacturing PMI should also remain above 50. If both countries report strong manufacturing activity, then something doesn’t quite add up. After all, the world only has one global pool of buyers. If U.S. factories are booming, shouldn’t Chinese factories be slowing down?

The data suggests U.S. manufacturing is very strong, yet China’s manufacturing doesn’t appear weak either.

Bitcoin corrected after the U.S. Manufacturing PMI was released, indicating that the DXY strengthened.

If China’s PMI rises but the Chinese Yuan weakens, that would suggest China’s manufacturing sector is actually slowing, which could be bullish for Bitcoin.

10:00 PM WITA – JOLTS Job Openings

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Last month’s JOLTS data came in higher than expected, and I was already skeptical at the time. I believe this month’s figure will likely be revised downward.

My prediction is that job openings will decline.

If JOLTS increases, the DXY strengthens. If JOLTS declines, Bitcoin is likely to rise.

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures consumers’ willingness to spend. If the index rises, the DXY usually strengthens while Bitcoin weakens.

My prediction is that Consumer Confidence will decline.

The reason is that the U.S. has chosen diplomacy with Iran to help ease energy prices. I also believe this should align with the upcoming Congressional elections in November.

Overall, I expect Tuesday to remain bullish with a long wick—excluding any war-related developments. I simply cannot analyze geopolitical conflicts.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026

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8:15 PM WITA – ADP Employment Change

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If ADP Employment increases, the DXY strengthens and Bitcoin weakens. I expect private-sector employment to increase because last month’s JOLTS data was reported higher.

9:45 PM WITA - U.S. Manufacturing PMI

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Last week, this indicator came in at 55.7, and this week’s forecast is also 55.7. Manufacturing activity remains exceptionally strong.

But if manufacturing is this healthy, why has the U.S. stock market been declining?

Therefore, I expect Wednesday to start bearish.

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Thursday, July 2, 2026

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8:30 PM WITA – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

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Non-Farm Payrolls measure the number of new jobs created during the month, including government employees, private-sector workers, and part-time employees. If NFP increases, the DXY strengthens. If NFP declines, Bitcoin tends to rise.

The theme this time is “NFP with Zero Liquidity.” The U.S. economy is experiencing tight liquidity conditions, which is one reason why the U.S. has sought peace with Iran.

Therefore, I expect this month’s NFP report to reflect weaker liquidity conditions.

If the report comes in lower as I expect the Federal Reserve will have little room to maintain a hawkish stance because unemployment would be rising.

Since Friday is also a market holiday, I expect Bitcoin to move higher.

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Thank you for reading.

My opinion is intended only to provide another perspective alongside existing market views. I can never truly know what the future holds. Mistakes are inevitable, while being right is only temporary. Therefore, please do not use this analysis as the sole basis for buying or selling decisions. Always conduct your own research and do not consider this financial advice.

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